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Author: David Herdson

What the parties should be looking for in Oldham

What the parties should be looking for in Oldham

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How LAB is using Douglas Carswell's tax credit vote in the Oldham W & R by-election. pic.twitter.com/aaEdtgLyZ9 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 5, 2015 Joy, meh and despair So for the second parliament running, the first by-election in it will take place in Oldham. Unlike neighbouring Oldham East & Saddleworth, Michael Meacher’s former seat does not, on the face of it, look all that interesting: it reliably returned Labour members for decades and did so with a majority of close…

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David Herdson writes: Ed Miliband: my part in his downfall

David Herdson writes: Ed Miliband: my part in his downfall

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Did I win the Conservatives the election? A year ago today I received an unsolicited e-mail from an extremely senior Conservative election strategist, asking if I ever came to London as he’d be interested in picking my brains. Unsurprisingly, I said ‘Yes’. The approach wasn’t completely out of the blue. A few months earlier, he was a speaker at the 2014 Yorkshire Regional conference and at the end of the session, I door-stepped him in order to hand him a…

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2016 should be the Republicans’ year for the White House

2016 should be the Republicans’ year for the White House

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The decline & decline of Jeb Bush in the Republican nomination betting. Was hot favourite – now a 16% chance pic.twitter.com/ZEuOVfyfjG — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 24, 2015 But only if they can choose the right candidate Hillary Clinton will be the Democrats’ candidate for the presidency next year, short of falling under a bus. Sanders is far too left-wing to be electable and offers nothing beyond his base, Biden has announced he won’t run, and no-one else is on…

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The US Presidential Election: David Herdson’s guide to analysis

The US Presidential Election: David Herdson’s guide to analysis

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Wikimedia Commons Ten tips for successful prediction The US presidential election is the biggest single political betting event, which is excellent news for serious analysts and players because it probably means that there’s a lot of amateur, uninformed money to be matched against. Not every election will produce a 50/1 winner but there’s nearly always value to be found for the astute. How? Here are some tips: 1. Follow US media: America is a different country Deceptively so. Some surface…

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Rose might front Remain but he won’t lead it

Rose might front Remain but he won’t lead it

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Tory Peer & former M&S boss Lord Rose to lead the campaign to keep the UK in the EU. http://t.co/GSlsdgM8fC pic.twitter.com/4SNafUiYVl — TSE (@TSEofPB) October 10, 2015 Amateurs playing at politics will get swept aside by the professionals Politicians are not popular; not now and rarely ever. The bickering, the pettiness, the game-playing, the dirt thrown – much of which sticks to some extent, including to the hands throwing it – the actual policies proposed or implemented, the negative characteristics…

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David Herdson says “look to the outsiders for Cameron’s successor”

David Herdson says “look to the outsiders for Cameron’s successor”

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Most Con leaders were off the radar four years before they got the job The clock is ticking on David Cameron’s leadership. As delegates meet for the first Conservative conference of his last term, minds will already be turning to the question of who will succeed him. It’s probably far too soon to be doing so. Ever since the Magic Circle method of election was abolished, the Conservatives have consistently surprised with their choices. In fact, four years before they…

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David Herdson says the Migrant crisis has laid bare the EU’s big delusion

David Herdson says the Migrant crisis has laid bare the EU’s big delusion

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Ultimately, the Union must unite or perish Ever closer union: three words that have caused interminable difficulty for those who wanted – those who want – a European Common Market. Three words that are now superfluous, though not for the reasons that the Marketeers would like. The reason they’re superfluous is that the other initiatives the EU has undertaken contain an internal dynamic that supersedes any treaty rhetoric. Nowhere has that been more clearly demonstrated that with the migrant crisis…

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Will Cameron’s majority last?

Will Cameron’s majority last?

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As far as Dave need worry, it’s still Europe that matters most For all the difficulties that have beset Jeremy Corbyn in his first week in charge, when it comes to parliamentary votes, it’s the PM rather than the Leader of the Opposition who should worry. Yes, a more effective whipping operation on the tax credit vote last week would have reduced rather than doubled the government majority but the government would still have won – and a government win…

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