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Author: David Herdson

Never mind Super Tuesday, get ready for Mega March

Never mind Super Tuesday, get ready for Mega March

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In three weeks’ time, the nominations could be locked up The preliminaries are all but over with the first phase of the presidential primaries doing the job assigned them: knocking out (most of) the also-rans and narrowing the field to the serious contenders and the hobby-horseists. The game of musical chairs that is Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada left Huckabee, Fiorina, Christie, Bush, Rand Paul, Santorum and O’Malley all standing after the music stopped. Thank you and good…

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Only the FBI can stop Hillary now

Only the FBI can stop Hillary now

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But what happens if they do? It could have been very different. Had Bernie Sanders won the caucuses in Iowa and Nevada, Hillary Clinton’s campaign would now be in disarray. Rather than today’s South Carolina primary being a foretaste of the likely landslide she’ll win on Super Tuesday, it would be seen as a must-win vote simply to remain in the race; Super Tuesday itself would most likely have been a closer contest building off the back of a hat-trick…

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Deal done – and combined with LEAVE’s Galloway error of judgment, it might be enough

Deal done – and combined with LEAVE’s Galloway error of judgment, it might be enough

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The initiative swings back to Remain But for Tony Marlow’s blazer, Michael Portillo might have ended up prime minister rather than a rail-hopping TV presenter. To have done so, he needed John Redwood to do sufficiently well in the first round of the Conservative Party leadership election against John Major. Redwood, however, never really recovered from his initial press conference when he “was lost in a mass of eccentric jackets and lime-green silk”, as Major put it. That one press…

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The hurdles Hillary has to surmount are getting higher

The hurdles Hillary has to surmount are getting higher

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She might lose the nomination never mind the general election Eugene Debs must be grinning in his grave. OK, Bernie Sanders isn’t quite the firebrand radical that Debs was a hundred years ago but the notion that there is a credible route for a self-declared socialist to the White House is one that only a few months ago would have been dismissed with derision. Not now. Two polls released yesterday give the Independent Senator for Vermont genuine cause for hope….

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Assessing Marco Rubio: A surge or just a bubble

Assessing Marco Rubio: A surge or just a bubble

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David Herdson on why he’s yet to be convinced Ted Cruz can feel a little hard done by. It was he, after all, who won the Iowa caucus, beating Donald Trump, the reports of the pollsters, and indeed everyone else. Normally, that would be enough to fire him into the media spotlight as the man with the momentum. Not this time. The ‘momentum’ badge has instead been awarded to Florida senator, Marco Rubio. Although he finished only third in Iowa,…

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The key EURef issue: Whether Cameron can secure a deal that’s saleable

The key EURef issue: Whether Cameron can secure a deal that’s saleable

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David Herdson questions whether minor benefit reform will be enough When Cameron gave his Bloomberg speech three years ago, kicking off his whole renegotiation policy, he set out a vision of the European Union he believed was fit for the twenty-first century, built on five principles: 1. Competitiveness. In particular, completing the Single Market in services, energy and digital, and “addressing the sclerotic, inefficient decision-making” and “creating a leaner, less bureaucratic Union”. 2. Flexibility. He mentioned doing away with ‘ever…

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The very idea of President Sanders – seriously?

The very idea of President Sanders – seriously?

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Can he beat Clinton and if so, the Republican? In contrast to all the interest that the Republicans have delivered in their pre-primary contest, the Democrats’ affair has been a low-key, staid affair so far: two candidates plus an also-ran, of which one has been an overwhelming favourite for a long time, backed with huge financial and political muscle; the other, a 74-year-old self-described socialist who has never even run for election as a Democrat before. It ought to be…

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David Herdson says the EU Referendum campaign could already be over with REMAIN the victors

David Herdson says the EU Referendum campaign could already be over with REMAIN the victors

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What LEAVE has to do now if it is to have any chance The EU referendum campaign may well already be over with Remain having won. In many ways, that shouldn’t be the case. Europe hardly presents a picture of radiant success on a practical level, while the idea of a common European home is laughable when states are re-erecting borders against each other. A troubled economy, social disharmony and a dysfunctional political system – what more could a Eurosceptic…

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