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Author: David Herdson

The Republican dilemma: Would dumping Trump be worth the hassle?

The Republican dilemma: Would dumping Trump be worth the hassle?

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And if it is, then what? It is something of an irony that after months of saying outrageous things and winning more and more support off the back of it, Trump’s downfall might well be due to a sensible answer. There is, after all, nothing unusual or wrong in the principle that people who break the law should be punished. If it doesn’t feel right to apply the punishment, chances are the law shouldn’t be there in the first place….

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Philip Hammond: worth backing at 28/1

Philip Hammond: worth backing at 28/1

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Another grey man might be just the thing to pick up the pieces If asked for a role model, few aspiring politicians would opt for John Major. Unfashionable, uncharismatic, comprehensively battered at the 1997 election: why would they? Yet the travails of the 1992-7 parliament culminating in that electoral apocalypse overshadow what he achieved in his first 18 months: reuniting a party riven by Europe and re-establishing the Conservatives as economically competent, ideologically pragmatic and on the side of ordinary…

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How Port Talbot could give us a pointer to the EURef

How Port Talbot could give us a pointer to the EURef

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Will UKIP fare well in Wales? In the hot-house of political reporting and comment, individual stories invariably seem more important at the time than they subsequently turn out to be. The future of the Port Talbot steel works is likely to be one such case. Although the closure or even mothballing of the plant would be disastrous for the town and the people who live and work there, for most of Wales – never mind the country beyond – the…

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After the latest Trump-Cruz blow-up David Herdson suggests a 50/1 punt on Kasich

After the latest Trump-Cruz blow-up David Herdson suggests a 50/1 punt on Kasich

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He could be the only one who can stop Trump It’s probably all over: the sex scandal now engulfing Ted Cruz means that Donald Trump is highly likely to be the Republicans’ nominee for president. Highly likely but not certain. The dilemmas of the Never Trump brigade as to what strategy to adopt in order to stop him have their answer; there’s only one possible. They must get behind John Kasich as soon as possible in order to deny Trump…

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The Tories’ EU divide is making life harder for Corbyn’s opponents

The Tories’ EU divide is making life harder for Corbyn’s opponents

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He should comfortably do well enough in May now The honeymoon is over. Two polls within a week without a Tory lead – one level-pegging from ICM and then Thursday’s from YouGov reporting Labour ahead by a point – are testament to the public disapproval of internal party divisions. They might also be testament to Labour’s invisibility at the moment, but then why intrude when your opponents are tearing themselves apart? In fact, the divisions within the Conservatives are probably…

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Cameron’s first policy resignation: IDS quits

Cameron’s first policy resignation: IDS quits

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But it’s Osborne in the firing line There are two easy assumptions that need dismissing about IDS’s resignation yesterday. Firstly, this is not a power gambit on Duncan Smith’s part; and secondly, his going is not to do with Europe. The two in fact tie together. There could be – and perhaps already is – an explanation that runs thus: IDS has really quit because he is upset by how the Remain side is conducting the European debate; in leaving…

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Why a brokered convention won’t stop Trump

Why a brokered convention won’t stop Trump

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The Republican nomination It is now Trump v Cruz. Lay anyone else. Let’s talk brokered conventions, always a topic to set the pulses of political anoraks racing. We can deal with the Democrats briefly. Bernie might take Hillary all the way to the convention but if he does, he’ll lose just as she did against Obama eight years ago. It’s quite possible that Sanders will deny Clinton the victories she needs to assure herself of the nomination without superdelegates but…

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Holyrood 2016: the SNP’s hegemony continues

Holyrood 2016: the SNP’s hegemony continues

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But how bad will it get for Scottish Labour? You wouldn’t know if you only received your news from the London media but there are three general elections in the UK this year. Voters will go to the polls in May to elect new Assemblies in Wales and Northern Ireland and to the Scottish Parliament (as well as a London mayor, various lesser mayors, a bumper set of councillors and PCCs across England and Wales – it’s probably the biggest…

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