Elitism has a rightful place in politics A colleague told me this week that she felt let down that she couldn’t vote in the Conservative leadership contest. Never mind that her politics are somewhere between Jeremy Corbyn and Natalie Bennett, or that I – like the rest of the voluntary section of the Conservative Party – didn’t get a vote in the leadership contest, she’s of the opinion that everyone should be entitled to have a say in the internal…
The Leadership Election is their last chance to save themselves ‘Exceptional things don’t happen as often as commentators think’ is nearly always a good betting rule of thumb but there are two riders to that assertion. Firstly, ‘not as often’ doesn’t mean ‘never’, and secondly, when they do happen, they can cluster. In fact, 2016 hasn’t been quite as extraordinary as some might believe, though only because 2015 was. Brexit might be a defining moment in both the UK’s and…
The battle for the Élysée will be between the centre-right and the far-right Complacency has been the bane of the established political class across the Western world these last few years; a bad habit it doesn’t seem capable of kicking. Time and again, outsiders have shaken up the order, from Tsipras in Greece to Labour electing Corbyn to Trump taking the Republican nomination to Bernie Sanders running Hillary close to the UK voting for Brexit. Parties and electorates have been…
Real Clear Politics The Donald is close to being back in the race What a busy three weeks it’s been. You could almost have forgotten that there was an election on in the most powerful country in the world. However, there is and the Republican Party convention begins on Monday. Donald Trump hasn’t had the best of build-ups, after his narrow deficit against Hillary in the national polls back in May – after he’d secured the nomination – widened out…
And the polls and history suggest it will be When Theresa May pitches her bid for the leadership of the Conservative Party to its members, she will do so with unprecedented support from MPs. More than half voted for her in the first round – the highest total since 1965 in a contested election without an incumbent – and more than 60% backed her in the final MPs’ round: well above the comparable figures for Cameron or IDS at the…
LAB MPs have only 3 choices: win, leave or submit – and time is running out Never underestimate the ability of Labour MPs to fail to carry through a leadership coup. Ten days ago, it did look as if they had finally got their act together. Virtually the entire Shadow Cabinet resigning in sequence followed by an overwhelming vote of no confidence in the leader would normally have been enough. No government could possibly withstand those actions and Labour ought…
TELEGRAPH: Matt in college #tomorrowspaperstoday pic.twitter.com/rTYavnuJ57 — Neil Henderson (@hendopolis) July 1, 2016 What to bear in mind when anticipating developments 1. This is not Leave v Remain again We have just been through a highly divisive referendum campaign and apart from the country itself, nothing was more divided than the Conservative Party. However, divisions can be, and are being, overplayed. Some in the media would have you believe that the Tories are split into two immutably hostile blocks. They’re…
It’s war within Labour and one side must lose To have publicly lost the confidence of three-quarters of your MPs would normally be regarded as a resigning matter. In 1995, John Major set himself the private target in his party’s leadership election of 65% of his MPs, aware that without a substantial lead his authority would be terminally damaged. Indeed, the Tory leadership election rules at the time required a 15% lead in the first round in order to ensure…