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Author: David Herdson

The big trend: CON and LAB are still failing to win voters from each other

The big trend: CON and LAB are still failing to win voters from each other

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The two big parties are left scrapping over the also rans One of the more remarkable features of the polling in the last parliament was the almost complete inability of both Labour and Conservatives to win voters from each other. Vote shares may have gone up and down but it was gains from and losses to the Lib Dems, UKIP, the Greens and SNP (and non-voters) that was responsible; the direct swing between the big two was negligible. As then,…

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Anticipating Corbyn’s second mandate

Anticipating Corbyn’s second mandate

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History repeats itself: the first time as farce, the second as – who knows? Albert Einstein said that time travel into the past is impossible. He was, however, only talking physically. Politics does not necessarily obey the same laws; a fact he recognised when he turned down the presidency of Israel due people needing to be treated differently from ‘objective matters’. Later today Labour will attempt to prove that those universal physical laws don’t apply by trying to turn the…

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Trump: grinding his way to victory?

Trump: grinding his way to victory?

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Suddenly his path to the White House is looking a lot clearer The Terminator had nothing on Donald Trump. Relentless, seemingly unstoppable, impervious, unflappable, possessed of a few choice popular catch-phrases, assimilated but still not of this (political) world: the public’s watched in horrified awe as he swept all opposition so far aside. Can Hillary Clinton make an even less plausible Sarah Connor and find the equivalent of a crushing steel press in the form of the electorate? Her health…

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The Grammar School policy is un-Conservative and will appeal to the wrong people

The Grammar School policy is un-Conservative and will appeal to the wrong people

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The thinking is muddled because the priorities are muddled Theresa May is a grammar school girl.* That personal experience, combined with the success of her career, might well be at the root of her enthusiasm for the system which she so lauded yesterday; many who believe they benefitted personally from a system become advocates for its wider adoption. If so, her enthusiasm is misplaced. Coming into office on a pledge of social mobility, it’s perhaps not too surprising that she’s…

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The curtain lifted a little this week on Labour’s civil war and it’s not pretty

The curtain lifted a little this week on Labour’s civil war and it’s not pretty

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Whoever wins in a month, the struggle will go on Power struggles are the nature of politics. Usually, the public gets to glimpse only a fraction of the battles waged behind closed doors in what were once smoke-filled rooms. Outsiders end up having to engage in their own form of Kremlinology to work out what’s really going on: piecing together patterns in offhand comments, unattributed press briefings and articles, planted Commons questions or unruly (or unusually quiet) supporters. The proliferation…

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Rio’s over and so to Tokyo and beyond

Rio’s over and so to Tokyo and beyond

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David Herdson looks at the battle to host the Games of the XXXIII Olympiad? So, farewell then Rio – or perhaps, goodbye. It’s not been a vintage Games. Some problems, such as the Zika virus, couldn’t have been anticipated or prevented but others – the three-quarter empty stadia, the unsporting crowds, the polluted water, dangerous cycle courses and the impending shambles of the Paralympics – most certainly could. The City of Fiesta never showed up and it will be a…

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The polls might still be overstating Labour

The polls might still be overstating Labour

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Disillusionment and disengagement rather than defection is the danger The Ipsos-Mori poll this week contained a paradox. On the one hand, Labour’s headline voting intention share was 34%, some way up on their General Election performance. On the other, Jeremy Corbyn’s approval ratings were awful. His overall score of -34 was bad enough but his net rating with Labour’s own voters, at -7%, was considerably lower than Theresa May’s approval rating of some +16% with those same voters. In fact…

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Gary Johnson could be the WH2016 king-maker

Gary Johnson could be the WH2016 king-maker

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For Hillary and Donald, the fringe candidates matter US presidential elections are always two-horse races. No candidate from any party other than the Republicans or Democrats has won the White House in over 150 years (which is to say, not since the Republicans became a major force), and nor has any even come close. Even Roosevelt in 1912 – by a huge distance the most successful third-party candidate in that time – fell a very long way short of defeating…

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