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Author: David Herdson

Copeland is still the better bet for the Lib Dems

Copeland is still the better bet for the Lib Dems

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But will they be distracted by Stoke Central? The Tories love governing, Labour loves protesting and the Lib Dem love winning elections. With the return to form of the Lib Dems in gaining by-elections, all is now once again well with the world. They might still be languishing in fourth place in the national polls but in actual elections, Farron’s party has been performing admirably well over the last year and in particular over the last few months. Thursday produced…

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How long can May’s honeymoon period go on?

How long can May’s honeymoon period go on?

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Most other mid-term boosts have dissolved after 6 months If the five years of this parliament were compressed into the space of a football match, we’d have only just reached the half-hour mark. It feels like longer, though that might be because there’s been a lot packed in: six leadership elections across the four main parties, a change of PM, an historic referendum, and Labour’s biggest crisis since at least the early 1980s. In the normal scheme of things, Labour…

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After a Year of Revolt, what’s in store for 2017?

After a Year of Revolt, what’s in store for 2017?

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There might well be scares but there won’t be shocks Few would have predicted twelve months ago that Donald Trump would be about to be inaugurated, that Theresa May would be prime minister and that Paul Nuttall would be leader of UKIP. Those who did should have cashed in nicely. There were straws in the wind for all of these (though most would have anticipated a change of UKIP leader after a Remain win, not a Leave), but the odds…

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After a dramatic political year David Herdson looks at the big picture

After a dramatic political year David Herdson looks at the big picture

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David Herdson outside a famous front door Globalisation is pushing democracy to breaking point. What will give first? It started with a ship; the Belen Quezeda to be precise. Built in 1884 in Aberdeen, she led a colourful life. Originally named the Zafiro, she ploughed her trade as a collier before being bought by and commissioned into the US navy when it was short of a supply vessel during the Spanish-American War. After her naval service, she passed through further…

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Back Sadiq Khan as Next Labour Leader at 33/1

Back Sadiq Khan as Next Labour Leader at 33/1

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He is well positioned to win a 2020 contest Who would have thought a year ago that as 2016 draws to a close, both Nigel Farage and David Cameron would have departed the stage while Jeremy Corbyn looks all the more secure in post? It’s a salutary reminder that there are always risks in getting too far ahead of ourselves. But where there are risks, so there are opportunities. At the risk of setting up an almighty hostage to fortune,…

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Can Labour really sleepwalk another 3 and a half years into disaster?

Can Labour really sleepwalk another 3 and a half years into disaster?

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Their position continues to get worse, gradually Lincolnshire has a habit of producing earthquakes. One in 1185 was powerful enough to badly damage Lincoln Cathedral. A more recent example, centred near Market Rasen at about 1am on 27 Feb 2008, was strong enough to wake people across large parts of the North and Midlands. To go by the reporting, the Sleaford & North Hykeham by-election didn’t generate similar tremors. The reporting is wrong; politics’ tectonic plates continue to move. The…

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The chances of a 2017 general election have just increased

The chances of a 2017 general election have just increased

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A smaller majority and greater Brexit pressure could force May’s hand The Lib Dems have their mojo back. Their result in Witney was good but safe seat or not, second is the best-placed loser. It’s winning that counts and it was a win that was delivered in Richmond Park on Thursday. After more than ten years without a gain, the campaign surge, the tactical votes and the Friday celebration must come as a long-overdue reminder of the good old days…

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With the French Republican primary run-off tomorrow David Herdson wonders why doesn’t France use AV

With the French Republican primary run-off tomorrow David Herdson wonders why doesn’t France use AV

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Their stupid voting system could let in an unpopular extremist Just as one never-ending presidential election ends, another begins. France goes to the polls again tomorrow to pick the centre-right candidate of Les Républicains; their choice being between former prime minister Alain Juppé and former prime minister François Fillon. Fillon is the extremely strong favourite (1/16 with Ladbrokes, to Juppé’s 8/1); a remarkable turnaround given that the polls in the week of the first round of the primary indicated a…

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