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Author: David Herdson

Next Prime Minister: Gus O’Donnell at 250/1?

Next Prime Minister: Gus O’Donnell at 250/1?

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Time to think about some contingency planning The last few years have seen a profusion of long-odds political bets come in. When they have, it’s been because the bookies, the punters or both have misread the electorate, the candidate(s) or the process. I think there’s another outside opportunity now. This week’s Budget cannot in any sense be regarded as priming the Conservatives for a snap election. Presumably, Philip Hammond didn’t anticipate quite the reaction to his NIC proposals that did…

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N Ireland’s election: the road to nowhere?

N Ireland’s election: the road to nowhere?

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We look to be heading back to a suspension Normalcy does not suit Northern Irish politics. A political structure designed to overcome the legacy of the seventeenth century (with a good deal of success, it has to be said), is in severe danger of being incapable of handling the practicalities of the twenty-first. It’s not unusual for a coalition to break down over some disagreement of policy or administration, and for elections to follow. It is, by contrast, unusual for…

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The dark cloud on Labour’s horizon: total wipeout

The dark cloud on Labour’s horizon: total wipeout

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Just where is Labour’s floor for 2020? One of the best political tips of the 2015 general election was to back Labour for 0-5 seats in Scotland. When William Hill first put the market up – after the independence referendum – they marked that outcome at no less than 125/1. (I apologise for not being able to namecheck the PBer who tipped the bet; I forget who it was.) That price was a testament to the inertia of thinking as…

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Impressions from Cumbria: Labour will win if they can turn their vote out

Impressions from Cumbria: Labour will win if they can turn their vote out

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Copeland gives a good demonstration of why governments so rarely gain by-elections A wet and windy Saturday in Copeland is neither the time nor place to be wearing £250 brogues, as one volunteer reporting for duty in Egremont discovered (he was later spotted sporting rather less stylish but more functional off-white trainers). I mention this not as advice – it’s too late for that – nor to poke fun at the volunteer, who shall remain nameless (it wasn’t me!), but…

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David Herdson tries to makes sense of the Lib Dem local by-election victories

David Herdson tries to makes sense of the Lib Dem local by-election victories

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Why are their by-election results so out of line with their polling? Another week, another excellent set of local election results for the Lib Dems. Two gains from the Conservatives on big swings re-emphasised the extent of party’s success in the last year, following up on the even bigger and more even more unexpected gains in Sunderland and Rotherham. If we were being picky (and we should be), we might note that the other three by-elections on Thursday weren’t so…

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Corbyn is more in touch on Europe with the voters Labour needs to win back than his MPs or members

Corbyn is more in touch on Europe with the voters Labour needs to win back than his MPs or members

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Embed from Getty Images Most of Labour’s lost voters are Leavers This has not been the best week for Jeremy Corbyn. He lost another Shadow Cabinet member and two other frontbench spokesmen, suffered a sizable rebellion on Europe (whereas, unlike one upon a time, the Tories presented an almost united front), prompting several thousand members to resign; yesterday’s YouGov poll confirmed that the Conservatives’ lead remains in the mid-teens, and Labour suffered a devastating local by-election loss in Rotherham, which…

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Corbyn’s corrosion is to Labour’s habits as much as to its polling

Corbyn’s corrosion is to Labour’s habits as much as to its polling

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How long will it take to restore internal discipline in the post-Corbyn era? “Damn your principles; stick to your party!” With such lofty dismissiveness did Disraeli once berate a colleague thinking of rebelling. It is not just hard but impossible to think of Jeremy Corbyn using like words, yet they are the currency of every successful parliamentary leader, if not always put so bluntly. Not just the leader either. For all the myths of party whips terrorising and bribing MPs…

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Trump’s New American Revolution

Trump’s New American Revolution

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He can’t govern in slogans but they’ll take him a long way Inaugurations set the tone for a presidency and Trump undoubtedly set his yesterday: life will be different – for DC, for Europe, for China and for the world. In an extraordinarily pugnacious address, which might have been lifted direct from his campaign rallies, Trump served notice that the Old Order is dead as far as he is concerned. There will be no more Beltway politics, benefitting lobbyists and…

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