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Author: David Herdson

Events are boxing May in while Corbyn sits pretty

Events are boxing May in while Corbyn sits pretty

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The structural weaknesses of May’s government will leave its impression on the public Only a fool would try to predict how this parliament will play out after all the extraordinary political upheavals and upsets this decade so far. So here goes. The central fact in British politics right now is that Jeremy Corbyn is unchallengeable. He will serve through to the next election (and perhaps beyond), unless he chooses to stand aside before it, of his own volition. He and…

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The Tories must leave and give Corbyn his chance

The Tories must leave and give Corbyn his chance

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A tawdry May-DUP deal is not something Con MPs should sign up to According to the plan, this should have been the week when Theresa May stamped her authority on her government, her Party and the country. A reshuffle to mould her ministers in her image; a Queen’s Speech to tackle the issues she cares about, in the way that she wants to tackle them; and five years in which to do that, to deliver Brexit and to tee up…

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Why TMay must stay – for now

Why TMay must stay – for now

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There is much to be getting on with, including leadership election reform A minority government propped up on a vote-by-vote basis by a minor party where the government, even including the ally, only has a majority of about 13 (once Sinn Fein are excluded), is about as strong and stable as a three-legged gazelle roller-skating across ice. In normal circumstances, not only would this not be a parliament likely to go the distance, it would do well to reach a…

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What ‘good’ will look like for the parties in this year’s May elections

What ‘good’ will look like for the parties in this year’s May elections

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Who should win what, and what will the misses and bonuses mean? The expectations game is an unavoidable part of politics and one that pundits and practitioners play with relish. It is, of course, such an intrinsic part of betting that it’s difficult to meaningfully isolate betting from expectations. There are more direct practical consequences of how a party performs against expectations. It’s one thing to lose seats; it’s another to lose more than people expect – or, for that…

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The Multiplier Effect: Regional, Social and Brexit swing make a bad story worse for Corbyn’s LAB

The Multiplier Effect: Regional, Social and Brexit swing make a bad story worse for Corbyn’s LAB

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Polling analysis: CON’s getting biggest swings where it matters most Writing a thread on why Labour might do even worse than headline polling figures suggest feels uncomfortably like kicking a man when he’s down. However, if that’s what’s happening then it needs reporting and interpreting; I am only the messenger. And it is happening. Poll after poll has reported differential swings across regions, social groups and Brexit alignment. I’ve therefore looked at all the polls published in March to see…

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Even at only 1/2, Macron remains the value bet

Even at only 1/2, Macron remains the value bet

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The centrist looks close to home and hosed right now France is no stranger to revolutions. It’s therefore hardly surprising that there’s a ready temptation – particularly after the Brexit vote in the UK and Trump’s election in the US – to seek both contemporary and historic parallels in the possibility of a Le Pen victory in May. Indeed, it’s so tempting that the odds have come quite out of line with the real chances. There are only two simple…

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UKIP: circling the whirlpool

UKIP: circling the whirlpool

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How does Nuttall save his party from irrelevance? UKIP was very good for Brexit: if the party had never been created, Britain would almost certainly still be a member of the European Union.* Brexit, by contrast, has been disastrous for UKIP. Stripped of their two greatest assets – their mission and by far their most effective leader – UKIP has struggled since last July to find a purpose or a direction. Compounded by internal divisions, the estrangement of their major…

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Why Sturgeon’s SIndy2 isn’t a gamble; it’s a necessity

Why Sturgeon’s SIndy2 isn’t a gamble; it’s a necessity

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In addition, I was elected as FM on a clear manifesto commitment re #scotref. The PM is not yet elected by anyone. — Nicola Sturgeon (@NicolaSturgeon) March 14, 2017 Her window of opportunity could be closing The SNP exists to achieve independence for Scotland. This simple fact shouldn’t really need stating but keeping it at the forefront of our minds is crucial to understanding why what’s going on is going on, and how events might pan out in future. As…

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