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Author: David Herdson

Tips for WH2020: Bullock, Hickenlooper – and Trump

Tips for WH2020: Bullock, Hickenlooper – and Trump

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The field is too clogged up with the debris and echoes of 2016 One of the enduring mysteries of political betting is the continuing strength of David Miliband in the Next Labour Leader market. Despite his not having sat in the Commons for four and a half years, despite his showing no inclination to return, despite there being little opportunity to return in the near term, despite his politics now being completely out of line with a Labour Party whose…

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Quantum physics could have the answer to Brexit’s Ireland problem

Quantum physics could have the answer to Brexit’s Ireland problem

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Perhaps Schroedinger’s Border Guards should patrol the Customs Union Brexit will happen. As Alastair Meeks sensibly pointed out here yesterday, there’s a good, clear case that Article 50 is not revocable. Britain could ask for an extension to the talks but the PM has been clear that she doesn’t intend to do so and in any case, a delay is not a reversal of course. In practice, the transitional arrangement might look very much like continued membership but even that…

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Safe for now – but for how long?

Safe for now – but for how long?

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A good whipping operation can delay but not prevent the inevitable Napoleon famously demanded that his generals be lucky. It’s a wonderful attribute to have but the emperor really should have been more specific. What’s important is being lucky at the right time. On that score, Theresa May has fallen short and it will cost her her premiership. That’s not to say she’ll lose it today or tomorrow, or even this year. An effective pre-emptive strike against Grant Shapps ensured…

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With the CON conference starting David Herdson says what’s wanted is vision

With the CON conference starting David Herdson says what’s wanted is vision

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‘Getting on with the job’ simply isn’t good enough “I have a dream”, said Martin Luther King, in one of the greatest speeches of the twentieth century. It was a dream he wanted to share and did share, and it was – and is – remembered not just for the eloquence of that initial delivery but for the righteousness and simplicity of the vision. In doing so, he did what every great political leader does: inspires and reinforces confidence among…

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Deadline 2021: the clock might (or might not) be reset but it is still ticking

Deadline 2021: the clock might (or might not) be reset but it is still ticking

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t8Cx_1HAf6k May’s Brexit concessions still deliberately risk a Crash Brexit So now we know what the longest cabinet meeting of the century achieved: everyone united around the proposition that if there’s a row to be had, it can wait. That’s as true of internal cabinet divisions as it is of the main UK-EU negotiations. At some point the crunch will come – but not yet. It was always extremely likely that the UK would ask for some form of transitional…

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The DUP deal has cost a lot more than £2bn: it’s blown apart the Tories’ economic case

The DUP deal has cost a lot more than £2bn: it’s blown apart the Tories’ economic case

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Austerity is dead – but what can replace it? YouGov published the results of an innovative survey on Thursday, where it found that the British public seemed more willing to pay a Brexit bill of £25bn (where 29% said they would find that acceptable), than one of £10bn (backed by 18%). Good news for Monsieur Barnier? Not exactly. The survey was designed to assess the effect of the options presented on the answers elicited, with the sample split into two…

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The Strange Rise of Jacob Rees-Mogg

The Strange Rise of Jacob Rees-Mogg

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David Herdson on the man who opposes abortion & gay marriage Of all the odd stories to have infected the Silly Season, none has been odder than the promotion of Jacob Rees-Mogg to be the next Leader of the Conservatives and, quite possibly along with it, Prime Minister. The oddness is not so much the story itself but the crossover into the betting markets. He is widely quoted at about 8/1 for the premiership, with only Paddy Power out on…

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May’s comments on retirement are more about 2019 than 2022

May’s comments on retirement are more about 2019 than 2022

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Her party will give her Brexit but not another election Theresa May might be on the other side of the world but she can no doubt still hear the cacophony of silence from her cabinet colleagues in support of her comment stating her desire to lead the Conservatives into the next election. As so often, what is not said is more revealing than what is. To be fair, the question of whether a leader intends to stand down within a…

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