How the Brexit vote, a VoNC and the FTPA could create Christmas chaos Poldark is not a documentary. As with many a period drama, it captures in the mirror as much of a picture of the era in which the adaptation was made as that in which it’s set. That’s not just true of the characters and their actions but of the world around them. To take one example, the ease and comfort with which they appear to nip up…
Changing course now will take a lot more than parliamentary motions Brexit ignorancis is a nasty little disease. Symptoms include the sufferer becoming breathless, exhibiting undue certainty in their pronouncements, asserting without evidence, disregarding evidence that’s inconvenient, suffering a loss of hearing and developing a fondness for tweed. Unfortunately, not only do mild cases not develop immunity but they leave the victim more prone to further, and more serious bouts. Those working at one remove from the action are inevitably…
Brexit is not in trouble because of the lack of a mandate Brexit Day is now just 125 days away, or less than 18 weeks, if you prefer (and of those, you can discount Christmas). The extent of the discussion of a second referendum is therefore a measure of the desperation of both those who want to stop Brexit and those dissatisfied with how it’s going. That desperation is understandable. Brexit – in a legal sense – now looks a…
May’s numbers don’t add up for now. Is the threat of No Deal enough to change minds? You have to salute her indefatigability. Despite the Prime Minister being just about the only MP prepared to champion the government’s Brexit Deal, despite the loss of another two cabinet ministers, plus various other more junior ones, despite the letters of No Confidence openly going in to the Chairman of the 1922, despite the three hours of parliamentary pummelling she took…
A No Deal Brexit is now highly likely in March Nothing has changed: words that might well form Theresa May’s epitaph. Unfortunately for her, unless something does, that epitaph will be needed sooner rather than later. With less than five months until the Brexit deadline, both the parliamentary maths and the European diplomacy remain resolutely irresoluble. Nothing has changed. Some might argue that’s a favourable interpretation; that Jo Johnson’s resignation yesterday indicated the maths are getting worse for the PM…
At the margins, who controls America’s imperfect democracy could be decisive Notoriously, Hillary Clinton never paid a campaign visit to Wisconsin in the five months between securing the Democratic nomination on 7 June 2016 and polling day, before losing the Badger State by less than 23,000 votes out of nearly three million cast. There is an element of mythology about Clinton’s Rust Belt absence. In truth, Trump didn’t spend any days there in the final month before polling day either…
Could losing an election be the best thing to happen to the 25/1 shot? These are not normal times. In normal times, US presidential candidates are vice presidents, senators and governors: people who already have a record in high office. There have always been exceptions but even then, they usually conformed to the rule in a wider sense. Trump does not conform to the rule. Indeed, Trump fails to conform to many received rules of politics. The easy conclusion would…
The balance in the Upper House has silently trended towards the blues Jeremy Corbyn doesn’t like the House of Lords and as with many things he doesn’t like, he’s gone out of his way to avoid engaging with it. When he was first running for the Labour leadership, he promised that he wouldn’t nominate any new Labour peers. That was understandable for someone who has long opposed the nature of the undemocratic upper House, and for someone who’s always believed…