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Author: David Herdson

There are four Brexit options and Remain is the least likely

There are four Brexit options and Remain is the least likely

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Changing course now will take a lot more than parliamentary motions Brexit ignorancis is a nasty little disease. Symptoms include the sufferer becoming breathless, exhibiting undue certainty in their pronouncements, asserting without evidence, disregarding evidence that’s inconvenient, suffering a loss of hearing and developing a fondness for tweed. Unfortunately, not only do mild cases not develop immunity but they leave the victim more prone to further, and more serious bouts. Those working at one remove from the action are inevitably…

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A second referendum is a dangerous distraction to the real action

A second referendum is a dangerous distraction to the real action

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Brexit is not in trouble because of the lack of a mandate Brexit Day is now just 125 days away, or less than 18 weeks, if you prefer (and of those, you can discount Christmas). The extent of the discussion of a second referendum is therefore a measure of the desperation of both those who want to stop Brexit and those dissatisfied with how it’s going. That desperation is understandable. Brexit – in a legal sense – now looks a…

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So the Deal’s going down. Then what?

So the Deal’s going down. Then what?

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    May’s numbers don’t add up for now. Is the threat of No Deal enough to change minds? You have to salute her indefatigability. Despite the Prime Minister being just about the only MP prepared to champion the government’s Brexit Deal, despite the loss of another two cabinet ministers, plus various other more junior ones, despite the letters of No Confidence openly going in to the Chairman of the 1922, despite the three hours of parliamentary pummelling she took…

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April 2019: month of chaos

April 2019: month of chaos

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A No Deal Brexit is now highly likely in March Nothing has changed: words that might well form Theresa May’s epitaph. Unfortunately for her, unless something does, that epitaph will be needed sooner rather than later. With less than five months until the Brexit deadline, both the parliamentary maths and the European diplomacy remain resolutely irresoluble. Nothing has changed. Some might argue that’s a favourable interpretation; that Jo Johnson’s resignation yesterday indicated the maths are getting worse for the PM…

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Never mind the House, watch the governors’ races for 2020

Never mind the House, watch the governors’ races for 2020

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At the margins, who controls America’s imperfect democracy could be decisive Notoriously, Hillary Clinton never paid a campaign visit to Wisconsin in the five months between securing the Democratic nomination on 7 June 2016 and polling day, before losing the Badger State by less than 23,000 votes out of nearly three million cast. There is an element of mythology about Clinton’s Rust Belt absence. In truth, Trump didn’t spend any days there in the final month before polling day either…

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Beto O’Rourke: not the new Lincoln but perhaps following in his footsteps

Beto O’Rourke: not the new Lincoln but perhaps following in his footsteps

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Could losing an election be the best thing to happen to the 25/1 shot? These are not normal times. In normal times, US presidential candidates are vice presidents, senators and governors: people who already have a record in high office. There have always been exceptions but even then, they usually conformed to the rule in a wider sense. Trump does not conform to the rule. Indeed, Trump fails to conform to many received rules of politics. The easy conclusion would…

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Corbyn’s gift to the Tories and Mrs May – his boycott of the House of Lords

Corbyn’s gift to the Tories and Mrs May – his boycott of the House of Lords

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The balance in the Upper House has silently trended towards the blues Jeremy Corbyn doesn’t like the House of Lords and as with many things he doesn’t like, he’s gone out of his way to avoid engaging with it. When he was first running for the Labour leadership, he promised that he wouldn’t nominate any new Labour peers. That was understandable for someone who has long opposed the nature of the undemocratic upper House, and for someone who’s always believed…

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DUP-No10 relations mean that 6/1 for Corbyn as Next PM is value

DUP-No10 relations mean that 6/1 for Corbyn as Next PM is value

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There is enough uncertainty over the next year to give him a decent chance When Ian Paisley said “No!”, people believed that he meant what he said. The Big Man may be gone but his party lives on and it would be extremely unwise for anyone to assume that when Arlene Foster says “no”, she means any different from her predecessor. The DUP do not bluff. Ever. They might occasionally change their minds but when they do, they do so…

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