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Author: David Herdson

Why Labour should win Newport West by-election

Why Labour should win Newport West by-election

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Government gains are exceptionally rare, even with poll leads Byelectionitis is not a condition that usually afflicts the Conservative Party and, to be fair, nor is it doing so now. The demands of government and particularly Brexit are inevitably occupying the attention of the Party and its members, both activist and elected. All the same, the flurry of positive polls for the Tories since the TIG split suggesting a Con lead of around 7-8% over Labour begs the question of…

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If LAB is serious about a second referendum it must seek a 6+ month A50 extension

If LAB is serious about a second referendum it must seek a 6+ month A50 extension

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Will it table the necessary amendment or is it all just words? Enthusiastic it was not. The Labour leadership finally adopting the policy set out at Conference of seeking a second referendum, now that a general election is not a viable means of stopping Brexit, came with all the keenness of toddler being encouraged to eat spinach. Even now, Corbyn is happy to mix notional support for a referendum with ‘other solutions’ being on the table. This matters because in…

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TIGgers can reshape politics – but not as a collective of lone wolves

TIGgers can reshape politics – but not as a collective of lone wolves

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They have declared war on the current party system, and must win or die Extinction is the usual fate of most political splits. Whether by political defeat or by a subsequent merger into a pre-existing party, any MP resigning from his or her party and not defecting directly to another one usually finds their subsequent career to be one of struggle, isolation and defeat. Is there any reason to think that this week’s extraordinary events could lead to any different…

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Olly Robbins’ overheard comments are a clue that TMay might be considering EURef2

Olly Robbins’ overheard comments are a clue that TMay might be considering EURef2

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David Herdson dissects the detail of what was said Brexit is not going to plan, it’s fair to assume. Only the Leave Ultras, intent on a No Deal outcome are likely to be feeling any confidence at the moment, and that group is always given to unjustified hope and expectation before the event anyway. Labour partisans not bothered about Brexit might also be revelling in the government’s discomfort too, but the list pleased with how it’s going runs short after…

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Punters could still be under-rating the chances of No Deal

Punters could still be under-rating the chances of No Deal

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Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange The route to any other outcome is fraught with difficulties You might think that with 94% of the time between the referendum and the scheduled Brexit Day now gone, we’d have some idea as to when and how Britain will be leaving the EU. Arguments about conceptual arrangements would have been better had in 2016 rather than in the final weeks. Instead, even the question as to whether the country will leave…

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Labour’s Next Leader: Dawn Butler at 100/1?

Labour’s Next Leader: Dawn Butler at 100/1?

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We need to learn the lessons of Corbyn’s wins Identifying Labour’s future leaders used to be a relatively easy job, certainly when compared against the Tories. Gaitskell, Wilson, Callaghan, Smith and Brown were all clearly identifiable as strong contenders five years or more before they took on the job. Blair, at that same distance, could have been seen (rightly, as it turned out), as a future potential leader but not the next one. Kinnock and Ed Miliband were a little…

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Coming to a Brexit near you: Rejoin

Coming to a Brexit near you: Rejoin

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Britain leaving the EU will close a chapter, not the book Whether the UK leaves the EU is still just about a question of ‘if’ as well as (or instead of) ‘when’, although of course ‘if’, being open-ended, isn’t of itself very meaningful. Suffice to say that the not-very-liquid Betfair market on Brexit date has ‘not before 2022’ at 4.2 – or, in percentage terms, a 24% chance. This is now slightly shorter than the 4.4 best price on 2019Q1:…

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A Customs Union deal needs to be on the table if No Deal is to be avoided

A Customs Union deal needs to be on the table if No Deal is to be avoided

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The only way to get Brexit Deal votes is to go softer It’s lonely at the top. It’s probably lonelier if you cut yourself off and isolate yourself from your colleagues, even if they are after their own interests and your own job. This last week has proven just how politically lonely Theresa May is, yet still she carries on. There’s something admirable in that and perhaps it’s no small part of the explanation for the rise in rise in…

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