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Author: David Herdson

The 2020 Democrat contest is likely to go all the way to the convention

The 2020 Democrat contest is likely to go all the way to the convention

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Field size and campaign structure make it hard for anyone to win outright Once upon a time, American party conventions to nominate their presidential candidates were raucous, sometimes violent, often unpredictable and certainly lengthy. The Democrat convention of 1924 set the unhappy record of taking 103 ballots to select a candidate, in a convention that lasted more than a fortnight. The drudgery, sweat and fatigue would prove fruitless: John Davis would go on to lose every state outside the South…

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Brexit is Ulsterising British politics

Brexit is Ulsterising British politics

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One issue has become so important as to define the entire system Most people would regard the Good Friday Agreement as a Very Good Thing. Certainly, it was so at the time and 21 years later, that broadly remains so. Despite the continuing background presence of dissident political violence – sadly this week coming into the foreground – the Agreement brought peace and an agreed political structure to the province. As with much else in Irish politics, the GFA has…

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Pete Buttigieg’s an interesting candidate but shouldn’t be a favourite

Pete Buttigieg’s an interesting candidate but shouldn’t be a favourite

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A 30-something gay small-city mayor should not be 14/1 to win WH2020 Precedent is a good guide but a bad determinant. To believe that something cannot happen because it hasn’t previously happened is to end up being unpleasantly surprised. It’s therefore possible that the Democrats could look past the current or former governors, senators and vice-president in order to select as their candidate someone who’s not just the mayor of a city the size of Chesterfield but who’s still in…

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Cooper-Letwin has probably killed Brexit

Cooper-Letwin has probably killed Brexit

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The stars that brought Brexit about are falling out of alignment Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn are not what you would call transactional politicians. May was famously described by Ken Clarke as a “bloody difficult woman” whose time at both the Home Office and No 10 has been marked by single-minded stubbornness. Corbyn, by contrast, was for decades an activist-politician on the fringes of Labour, and has maintained many of the habits and practices afforded the awkward squad MP despite…

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No Deal remains imminent and likely

No Deal remains imminent and likely

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Picture Judy Goldhill The Withdrawal Agreement remains an unmet EU expectation A failure to understand the other side’s point of view has been more than a running Brexit theme: it’s infected every aspect of Britain’s relationship with what’s now the EU throughout the last seven decades. Unsurprising then that miscalculations and misunderstandings continue to be made. That the same problem affects the domestic dialogue of the deaf that represents the Leave-Remain debate is hardly a cause for consolation. The cost…

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The indicative votes are the right question at the wrong time

The indicative votes are the right question at the wrong time

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Unless a WA is agreed, they could all be pointless Brexit means Brexit, Theresa May once said. Even at the time, the slogan was widely derided as meaningless and nebulous – though politically, there’s value in something that’s all things to all people. Indeed, Labour is engaging in an almost identical exercise at the moment, where almost nothing is ruled out but very little is explicitly ruled in: everything remains on the table, presumably in the hope that someone else…

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Key fact: Biden leads the Dem 2020 polling despite not yet running

Key fact: Biden leads the Dem 2020 polling despite not yet running

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RealClearPolitics This is more than name recognition: he’s very viable candidate One reason above all others convinced me in October 2015 that Donald Trump should be taken seriously as a presidential candidate: his performance in the opinion polls. It was easy to write him off as an amateur with a penchant for controversy and self-publicity; someone who would be overtaken by both his own absurdity and by professional politicians come the actual voting in the primaries. Easy but wrong, and…

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Meanwhile, Labour is redefining the domestic consensus

Meanwhile, Labour is redefining the domestic consensus

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The debate on police numbers this week demonstrates the changing terms of debate Brexit has created many political casualties already. Whether directly, like David Cameron, or indirectly, like UKIP, the vote to Leave the EU has cut a swathe through the personnel, policies and priorities of the political classes. We can expect many more to fall victim to the process before it ends. However, where there’s chaos, there’s opportunity. Jeremy Corbyn (ironically, the last surviving GB party leader from the…

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