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Author: David Herdson

The favourite always wins the Tory leadership race – eventually

The favourite always wins the Tory leadership race – eventually

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It’s all about the timing Conventional wisdom has it that the favourite never wins Tory leadership races. In one sense, this is probably true. I don’t have the historic figures but before every leadership election since the Party moved away from the old Magic Circle method of leaders ‘emerging’, there’s a good case that the person who emerged the winner was not the one seen as most likely to succeed in the period before the election was called. However, that…

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Boris will be the next prime minister. Then what?

Boris will be the next prime minister. Then what?

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Airy assertions and motivational phrases do not deliver deals or organise governments The landslide victory for Boris in the first round of the Tory leadership contest comes close by itself to assuring him of the outright win. Even at the 1/5 odds currently widely quoted, he’s still value. Put simply, the main question is whether he’ll cruise over the line or stumble over it. His safety-first approach may well tend towards the latter outcome for lack of energy and momentum…

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House games: Where Dragons fly and swords shimmer

House games: Where Dragons fly and swords shimmer

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Welcome to a very real fantasy Season 3: Episode 23/26 Violence and turmoil stalked the land. The old queen was not yet dead though she might as well have been. Her demise had been long, inglorious and inevitable, and yet that very inevitability gave her stubborn fight against it a redeeming air. It might have done little for her kingdom save stave off civil war for a few months but it had at least done that, as rival armies massed…

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The Tory race is crowded but there is value there

The Tory race is crowded but there is value there

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Even after the recent lengthening of his odds, Boris is still over-fancied When a dozen candidates declare their candidacy for a party leadership, it’s not a sign of strength. Certainly, it’s entirely possible to go too far the other way and allow a flawed but dominant candidate in by default, but an excess of candidates points to a lack of confidence in the leading runners among the second string. There are, of course, other reasons why also-rans might give the…

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You think things are bad now?

You think things are bad now?

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A glimpse into the next four years (maybe) Jess Philips had been to Number Ten before but not like this. Not in front of the microphones. Not at the centre of attention. Not as Prime Minister. Yet Prime Minister she was, newly returned from the Palace where the king had asked her to form a government and she’d said yes. Of course she had: for the first time in over a decade, Britain had a clear majority government. For the…

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Why Revoke is now very much on the table

Why Revoke is now very much on the table

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May’s departure and a flight to the extremes aids stopping Brexit A zombie government will bring a zombie Withdrawal Agreement back to parliament next month, and in true zombie style, it will get bashed and still not really die. Ever since the first Meaningful Vote in January, when the government lost by well over 200 votes, Theresa May has been locked in a political vice where she couldn’t countenance No Deal, couldn’t accept No Brexit but couldn’t deliver any Brexit…

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The Con-Lab Brexit talks are dead and the parties should say so

The Con-Lab Brexit talks are dead and the parties should say so

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The differences are unbridgeable and any deal unratifiable Like a sketch show parody of a Victorian dinner crossed with Weekend at Bernie’s, the negotiators in the Con-Lab Brexit negotiations have been determined to maintain the pretence that all is still well despite the talks having died some time during the soup course; it’s just that everyone is too polite to say so. That pretence has finally begun to break down as both the realities of the talks themselves and the…

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Change UK have given a masterclass in how not to launch a political party

Change UK have given a masterclass in how not to launch a political party

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Their muddled thinking has killed their project To be wrong once is inevitable, to be wrong twice is unfortunate, to be wrong three times is careless, but to be wrong as many times as Change UK have been is to show all the tactical and strategic awareness of a garden leaf trying to outwit a playful cat. It’s not merely that they keep losing the game; it’s not even that they don’t seem to know how the game’s played; it’s…

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