Browsed by
Author: David Herdson

We should be heading for a low turnout – who would that benefit?

We should be heading for a low turnout – who would that benefit?

Comments 0 Comment

Dark nights and dismal campaigning will not enthuse waverers There are four main factors in an election turnout: how important voters view the poll, how close they expect the result to be locally, how close they think it’ll be nationally, and what the prevailing local culture is towards voting. On that basis, you’d expect the general election to have a pretty decent turnout. Of the two national variables, there is genuinely a major issue at stake with Brexit, as well…

Read More Read More

Labour’s fan club is far too confident: 10 reasons why 2019 may not be 2017-part-2

Labour’s fan club is far too confident: 10 reasons why 2019 may not be 2017-part-2

Comments 0 Comment

A recovery for Corbyn is no foregone conclusion; it may get worse for Labour This is not a prediction as such. There are plenty of counter-arguments to the points I’m about to make, some of which will almost certainly turn out to be true. It would be equally possible to write an article with 10 reasons why the Tory lead may well slide again. All the same, to keep things simple, let’s keep the focus on this side of the…

Read More Read More

Johnson’s phantom majority: why we’re heading for a Christmas election

Johnson’s phantom majority: why we’re heading for a Christmas election

Comments 0 Comment

His deal won’t pass, even if the numbers are there Boris Johnson has a problem and it’s not the one that most of the Westminster Village spent yesterday pondering. It is, however, one that gives the lie to the aphorism of the PM’s namesake, the 36th president of the United States, that “the first rule of politics is that its practitioners need to be able to count”. It’s not: that’s the second rule. The first rule is that its practitioners…

Read More Read More

Trump’s unhinged behaviour won’t invoke the 25th

Trump’s unhinged behaviour won’t invoke the 25th

Comments 0 Comment

His mental health is too difficult to assess and there are other, better routes When Donald Trump was merely the cartoon boss on the Apprentice, he hammed up his performance with the very successful catchphrase “You’re fired” – although it turned out he really was playing himself all along. Trump’s administration has been a revolving door of appointments amid laudatory comments, followed by resignations and sackings and associated Trumpian bad-mouthing of his former colleagues. In around three years, Trump has…

Read More Read More

The curious incident of the ERG at Christmas 2017

The curious incident of the ERG at Christmas 2017

Comments 0 Comment

Congratulations to PM for her determination in getting today’s deal. We now aim to forge a deep and special partnership with our European friends and allies while remaining true to the referendum result – taking back control of our laws, money and borders for the whole of the UK. — Boris Johnson (@BorisJohnson) December 8, 2017 Johnson Tweet from December 2017 The dozy reaction to the Joint Report has misframed Brexit ever since Why does a dog not bark when…

Read More Read More

We shouldn’t look much past Lindsay Hoyle as next Speaker

We shouldn’t look much past Lindsay Hoyle as next Speaker

Comments 0 Comment

But if there is to be another female Speaker, Eleanor Laing is the better bet The last few weeks seem to have been filled with as many attempts to defy convention and accepted norms of rules and behaviour within Westminster as possible. There’s a certain irony, therefore, that in the election to replace John Bercow as Speaker, a convention many MPs may feel bound to respect a convention – that the Speakership should alternate between the main parties – which…

Read More Read More

Devastating defeat for Boris Johnson – and perhaps Brexit

Devastating defeat for Boris Johnson – and perhaps Brexit

Comments 0 Comment

  But will he prorogue again? The ruling from the Supreme Court today that the government acted unlawfully in proroguing parliament for as long as it did, when it did, is nothing but a devastating defeat for a government which has no majority, no great mandate and no obviously workable plan. In summary, the Supreme Court ruled that advice to prorogue was unlawful because it prevented parliament from performing its constitutional role and that though prorogation is clearly a lawful…

Read More Read More

The hurricane on Labour’s horizon

The hurricane on Labour’s horizon

Comments 0 Comment

Labour can’t rely on election campaign miracles every time As Labour gathers for its annual attempt to spread a veneer of forced goodwill over ruthless power-plays, rather like a Game of Thrones family Christmas, they ought to be asking a rather different introspective question than ‘how does Momentum increase its control?’. They should be asking ‘how do we get out of this disastrous polling position?’. They almost certainly won’t. Because the truth is that Labour’s polling position – buttressed by…

Read More Read More