As we all know the Hartlepool Westminster by-election is taking place on May 6th – the same day as the locals throughout England and the Scottish and Welsh Parliament elections.

Nominations have now closed for the locals and these show that of the 31 council seats up for election in Hartlepool three weeks on Thursday there are just 13 CON candidates.

Now I don’t know what to read into that, and there maybe local factors at play, but it is hard to see this as other than a negative for the Tories who are currently the betting favourite to take the seat from Labour. Not being able to field local candidates does not normally speak well of party organisation on the ground.

If anyone has any local knowledge here it would be great if you you could post on the thread below.

On the betting exchanges the Tories are a 64% chance to take the seat – I’ve put a bit more on LAB who are rated by the markets as a 37% chance.

Can I thank Tory peer and elections expert, Lord Hayward, for his data.