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Month: June 2020

Starmer moves to a 35% net approval lead over Johnson while all three polls tonight have the voting gap getting very close

Starmer moves to a 35% net approval lead over Johnson while all three polls tonight have the voting gap getting very close

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And Boris only 1% clear as best PM It has been a big night of polling with three new surveys all showing the Conservative lead over Labour getting narrower. The voting numbers are: Opinium CON: 43% (-) LAB: 40% (+1) LD: 6% (-) SNP: 5% (-) GRN: 3% (-) Survation, CON 41% (-4) LAB 39% (+5) LD 7% (-1) GRN 4% (-) SNP 4% (-) BXP 1% (+1) Deltapoll CON 41% (-2) LAB 38% (-) LD 8% (-) OTH 13%…

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The case for making “personality” ratings a good electoral indicator

The case for making “personality” ratings a good electoral indicator

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A guest slot from isam Last month, Keir Starmer appeared on the television in my front room to give his response to the Prime Minister’s Covid-19 statement. A few seconds later my eyes glazed over,  a few more passed and I switched the tv off saying “Jesus, he is dull”. It set me thinking that in a world of Reality tv, tiktok, snapchat, (none of which I am a fan of), and general instant gratification, (which I kind of am)…

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Trump 2024: the game’s changed and a third term is possible

Trump 2024: the game’s changed and a third term is possible

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The norms, expectations and opportunities of American politics are changing Let’s get ahead of ourselves. I do not expect Donald Trump to win a second term and neither do punters betting hard cash. At the time of writing, he was just over 2.2 on Betfair to win November’s election and marginally odds against with traditional bookies. I think that’s still a bit short. Trump’s job approval figures have just dropped to a seven-month low (albeit within quite a small range),…

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A Tale of Two Lawyers

A Tale of Two Lawyers

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L’Affaire Cummings is over, its lasting significance, if any, yet to be determined. But there is one aspect of it, largely ignored by the media, worth exploring. It relates not to the PM or his advisor but to the Government’s two main legal advisors: the Attorney-General, Suella Braverman, and the Lord Chancellor/Secretary of State for Justice, Robert Buckland. First, a brief explanation. The Lord Chancellor is responsible for the justice system: the courts, prisons and probation services, some of the…

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Another pollster has Johnson dropping sharply in its leader ratings while Starmer takes a net lead

Another pollster has Johnson dropping sharply in its leader ratings while Starmer takes a net lead

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Can Boris get back to where he was? Ipsos-MORI, Britain’s oldest polling firm, has just produced its latest leader ratings and the trend is very similar to what we’ve seen from other pollsters. Johnson has taken a hit while Starmer has continued to rise. Clearly the PM’s lack of action over the Cummings lockdown road trip affair continues to grate with voters. With Starmer there are fewer don’t knows which are splitting in favour or the new LAB leader. This…

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In praise of Boris – the cycling enthusiast

In praise of Boris – the cycling enthusiast

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Getting people on bikes could be his and the pandemic’s great legacy What might be looked back on as one of the biggest decisions when the lockdown was being introduced in March was to include bike shops amongst the retailers that were specifically allowed to remain open. Quite what role Boris had in that move I don’t know but it is hard to see that exception being made if someone else had been elected Tory leader last year. The impact…

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New YouGov polling finds Moggsy’s MP voting plan has gone down like a lead balloon with voters, even Tory ones

New YouGov polling finds Moggsy’s MP voting plan has gone down like a lead balloon with voters, even Tory ones

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Even GE2019 CON voters overwhelmingly opposed There are so many things going on at the moment that the Rees-Mogg move to end distant voting by MPs didn’t get much attention apart from the pictures of the queuing arrangements. Quite why the government backed the measure is even more questionable now we’ve got some YouGov polling on what voters think. As can be seen above just 17% of Tory voters gave it their backing. It is issues like this when politicians…

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