New Labour leadership polling for @thetimes Round 1KS – 46%RLB – 32%JP – 11%LN – 6%ET – 3% Final RoundKS – 63%RLB – 37%https://t.co/JrHoW89WKs — Chris Curtis (@chriscurtis94) January 17, 2020 Punters move back to Starmer who’s heading for a 70% chance once again This from the Times shows how the poll has it going round by round. Mike Smithson
In March 2017 PC Keith Palmer was killed while defending Parliament from a terrorist. In August 2019 PC Andrew Harper was killed while investigating a suspected burglary. These are only 2 of the 50 police officers killed between 1990-2010. Few of us face the risks ordinary police officers run. This does not excuse what is set out below. It does explain why it is so necessary, if their work and sacrifices are to be worthwhile and the public gets the…
Bath MP @Wera_Hobhouse tells our political correspondent @davidbevanwood that she might run to become the next leader of the Liberal Democrats. ??? pic.twitter.com/nwsoob8yp9 — ITV News WestCountry (@itvwestcountry) January 16, 2020 Bath LD MP Wera Hobhouse indicates that she might run for Swinson’s old job One of the key things about political betting is that when you see an opportunity you have to seize it fast. As we all know the Lib Dems were reduced by one seat to 11…
Last time we looked at the new Conservative intake in aggregate. This time we’re picking out a few who look set to make an impact, some for the right reasons and some for the wrong reasons. Many new MPs have scrubbed their social media squeaky clean. This might well be smart when looking to get elected. It is going to make it harder for them to stand out from the crowd. As Oscar Wilde said, the only thing worse than…
The Conservatives secured a thumping mandate at the general election, getting 365 MPs in the new Parliament, up from the 317 that Theresa May managed in 2017. This increase of 48, however, actually masks a much greater turnover. 109 of those 365 MPs were not in the last Parliament. More than one sixth of the new Parliament is comprised of new Conservative MPs. Most of these MPs are relatively unknown. They will, however, play a critical role in this and…
Survation LAB members’ poll for Labour LIst has Long-Bailey 42% Starmer 37% Jess Phillips 9% Lisa Nandy 7% This is very different from the YouGov members p — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 15, 2020 Starmer dropping sharply – RLP moving up in the Betfair betting following tonight’s Survation leadership poll with RLB ahead. Chart @betdatapolitics pic.twitter.com/7ERmOCCtvC — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 15, 2020 Note on methodology from the Survation LAB leadership poll pic.twitter.com/Mv8u1Ruv1b — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 15, 2020
How valid are the findings now? A fair amount has happened in the LAB leadership race since the YouGov members’ poll which was carried out over Christmas. The big number that people recall is that after six rounds of lower preference distribution Starmer was beating RLB by 61% to 39%. The first preferences were: Stamer 31% Long-Bailey 20% Phillips 11% Cooper 7% Lewis 7% Thornberry 6% Nandy 5% Since then Cooper has not entered the race and Lewis failed to…
The debate is over and the general verdict is that none of the contenders had a standout performance. The Betfair market shows Buttigieg getting the biggest uplift and squeezing past Biden. What was interesting is that those who’ve seen all the debates seemed to be taking a different view than those just new to this one. The view of Buttigieg was that he was just like he has been seen before. Newcomers to watching the debates seemed more impressed This…