Sell BREX, Buy PC, GRN & LDs – My current Commons seats spread bets
With December 2019 general election looking more likely I have just placed another Commons seats spread bet with SportingIndex.
With this form of betting the more you are right the more you win and the more you are wrong the more you lose. It lends itself very well to general election betting on things like how many seats will a party get.
My latest bet is a BUY at 56 seats of the LDs on the LibDem 50 up market. What’s appealing about this is that if Swinson’s party got below 56 my maximum loss would be based on a 50 seat starting line. So if the party ended up fewer than 50 my maximum loss would by six times my stake level.
I think yellows have the potential to do well but I’m not confident enough to take the standard buy of 45 seats where my downside exposure would be greater.
I’ve sold BREX seats at the 4 level because it is very hard for a party on 11/12% in the polls to take seats under first past the post. That’s since dropped to a sell level of three seats which I still regard as value, Farage’s parties have a long history of struggling in Westminster elections.
My Green party buy was at 1.5 and is based on the party benefiting from the Unite to Remain arrangement in key marginals under which there would be only one of the LDs, Greens or PC standing. The Green seats spread level buy is now at three so that bet is in profit if I sought to cash out. The same thinking led me to buy PC at 4.5.