By far the biggest global political betting event next year will be the White House Race and all the series of state primaries leading up to it. We have, of course, already started the TV debates for the Democratic nomination and a further round is scheduled for the end of the month.

Until now all the PB focus has been on the Democratic nomination race and we’ve barely looked at the bigger picture – will Trump get a second term?

The ABC News polling highlighted above was flagged up by the leading Republican pollster Frank Luntz and is very striking. As can be seen it shows how Democratic voters are so much more fired up about the coming election out than Republican ones and if that continues to be the case in a very divided nation it could make a difference.

Presidents are allowed to serve a maximum of two four year terms and generally incumbents retain the job when up for re-election.

White House races take place every four years are a long process, and even a year on from today it is possible that we might still not have a clear idea who Trump’s opponent will be.

For the moment, at least, not that many Americans are actually actively following the process with the possible exception of the those living in the early States to decide on the nominees Iowa, and New Hampshire.

Currently the front runner for the Democratic nomination is Joe Biden the 76 year old former vice president who has twice before run for the presidency and twice failed. He does, however the highest name recognition of any of the contenders which gives him an edge in the polling at this stage. The question is whether that’s sustainable  .

At this stage ahead WH2016 Republican nominee race the polls had Jeb Bush with a 19 point lead. He failed.

On the Betfair exchange Biden is currently rated as a 13% chance for the nomination – down from 31% before last month’s TV debates. Kamala Harris is at 33% with Elizabeth Warren at 19%.

Mike Smithson

Follow @MSmithsonPB

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