Biden might be topping the polls for the Democratic nomination but the questions remain
Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange
But is he overpriced in the betting?
.
As can be seen in the chart Joe Biden has moved back a bit in the betting for the Democratic nomination for WH2020 White House Race. His team is making it known that tomorrow he will formally enter the race with a specially prepared video that will be distributed.
This launch contrasts sharply with the mass rallies that he key opponents had with all the associated media coverage.
Because 76 year old Biden was Obama’s vice president for eight years he is very well known and many argue that it is this that is driving his current place in the polling rather than a real indication of what is going to happen. At this stage, of course, most primary voters have not given much thought to something that they won’t have to decide until next year.
Whatever he faces two very big obstacles which could undermine his effort. Firstly there’s a question of fundraising where other opponents, notably Sanders Harris and Mayor Pete who have raised millions. Biden starts from scratch.
Unlike the other contenders he doesn’t have a big supporter database that he can easily contact and although he has help from some of those who were behind Obama’s successful effort in this area. But quite a few of the key people from those campaigns are now working with Biden’s opponents.
He starts as the New York Times is highlighting, with zero dollars. Simply to match the amount raised already by Bernie Sanders he’s going to have to an enormous amount a day between now and Christmas something that will divert his attentions from the race itself. That’s a huge challenge.
The other big concerns over Biden are the allegations of inappropriate physical contact with women. Just go into Google or YouTube and search “Creepy Joe” and you’ll get an idea of what is involved. Chances are that after his formal announcement then more will come out and no doubt supporters of the other contenders are going to help this along.
I still think this is between Kamala Harris, Bernie Sanders and Mayor Pete with just a possibility that Elizabeth Warren might get some traction. Her policy based approach could resonate.