Boost for beleaguered TMay as the Tories hold second place in Newport W with swing from LAB to CON

Boost for beleaguered TMay as the Tories hold second place in Newport W with swing from LAB to CON

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Top six parties finished in the same order as at GE2017 and GE2015

The Newport West by-election result has gone very much as expected and in line with national polling with the Tories losing a smaller share of the vote than LAB thus making a swing from LAB to CON.

When the seat became vacant the general view was that this would be like other earlier by-elections with a LAB hold on a very much reduced turnout which is what has happened.

What is interesting is that the Tory vote has held up slightly better on what happened at the general election which must put heart into the party after a very difficult period over the Brexit negotiations.

It also puts into doubt that a general election tomorrow would put Mr. Corbyn in NUmber 10.

The bid by disgraced former Conservative MP, Neil Hamilton, to take the seat for UKIP failed although he did increase his party’s performance on the general election.

It should be noted that historically it is very unusual for there to be a swing from the opposition party to the main governing party in a midterm by election. This is not good for LAB though the party must be relieved that it has at least held the seat unlike it Copeland 2 years ago.

The top six parties finished in the same order as at the last two general elections.

An immediate impact of the by-election is that LAB’s strength in the Commons increases by one which in the current context could be significant.

Mike Smithson


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