Now increasing CON leads have become the norm

The above table from Wikipedia shows the published national voting intention polls over the past three months.

What is very striking is how there are almost no surveys showing Corbyn’s party ahead at the moment. That compares with January when LAB led in six and was tied in two.

We are coming to a point in a parliament when oppositions need to be recording solid leads if they are to have any chance of forming a government after the next election.

Too much of LAB thinking, it appears, is based on the hope that what happened last time will also occur next.

Maybe but maybe not. Three things are for sure – the Tories are going to run a better campaign than a year ago; Nick Timothy won’t be involved in the production of the manifesto, and the CON leader will appear in TV debates with the LAB one.

Also the campaign period, when Labour can expect equal coverage in the broadcast media, will be much shorter than the 7+ weeks of last year.

Mike Smithson

Follow @MSmithsonPB

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