So far the questions over the Leave campaign funding haven’t impacted on the betting
Punters think there’s a 57% chance that UK will leave EU a year on Thursday
The big Brexit development over the weekend have been the revelations about the Leave campaign funding and whether the law was followed. Those pushing this forward are clearly hoping that this could impede the Brexit process and de-legitimise the Referendum outcome.
So far punters are not impressed and the Betfair exchange currently rates the chances of UK leaving the EU on March 29th of next year at a 57% chance.
As the chart above shows it is only in recent weeks that the market has moved from odds-on Brexit not happening a year on and Brexit actually happening.
My initial instinct was to think that the weekend coverage would undermine confidence that all would go to plan. So far it hasn’t but maybe it could as other developments take place.
The experience is that when this market books it does so fast.