The uncertainty over Brexit and TMay are set to make this year’s locals more significant than usual
One things for sure — TMay’s Tories will struggle to match last year
We are little over two months away from this year’s local elections which because of the febrile political situation could have wider consequences than just who runs the local council.
Generally the bookmakers don’t take much notice of these elections and it is not often that we see betting markets. So Ladbrokes move to open the first ones for this May suggests that something is in the wind. The Tories are odds on to hold Kensington & Chelsea, Labour to gain Wandsworth and the LDs Richmond upon Thames.
One of the big problems with the annual local elections is that it’s hard to find valid comparisons with previous years because different seats come up in each cycle.
In order to trying to provide a set of standard data for each years elections the BBC and Rawlings and Thrasher each produce their own assessment of the National equivalent vote share after the election.
The chart above shows the BBC’s projected national vote over the last 5 years for the main national parties.
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Last year’s locals were held in the hothouse atmosphere of the general election campaign and it will be recalled that Mrs May made her highly publicised visit to the Palace on the day before. This was when “strong and stable” was riding high and hadn’t become a term of derision.
This year’s elections are a much tougher prospect for the blue team. The bulk of the media focus will be on London where the borough elections are taking place and the signs are that the Tories are doing less well there than in the rest of the country. London is traditionally where Labour does particularly well and expectations are running high.
What’s perceived as a poor set of results could be the trigger for a leadership move against TMay.