The little CON polling flurry has come at a bad time for the leadership plotters
Ideally they need LAB moving forward across the board
We are living in a time when much of the talk at Westminster continues to be how many CON MPs have written to Graham Brady, 1922 Committee chair, asking for a vote of confidence to be held on Mrs. May. Once he’s received 48 of these Brady has to immediately set up a leadership ballot. The last time the process was invoked MPs were voting within 24 hours.
My guess is that if TMay has to face such an ordeal then the outcome will be closer than what we saw with IDS in 2003 and we’ll see a strong campaign to keep her at least for the time being.
One thing that TMay backers will be looking for is evidence that supports their case and that would include the latest round of opinion polls. So the plotters would be wise to avoid a move that happens when things are moving in the direction of the blue team which is what is happening at the moment. These are the latest three polls:
ICM – CON takes lead
YouGov – CON draws level
Survation – CON gets 5 points closer
In the October 2003 effort to oust IDS great play was made by him and his supporters that he was actually doing quite well in the polls which had seen something of a CON recovery. Two YouGov surveys in particular were being highlighted which had the Tories level-pegging with Labour.
My advice to plotters is wait till these have edged back a bit before making the final move. After all the last thing they want is for Mrs. May to survive the vote.