To add to the febrile political mix – next week’s boundary changes cutting 50 MPs
One thing I think is for sure – there’ll be no move to remove the diminished TMay next week. MPs will be mostly focused on the position their own seats and the impact of revised boundary plans.
Although not implemented in 2015 the law reducing the size of the House of Commons from 650 to 600 MPs is still in force and the Boundary Commission has been going through the process of redrawing the boundaries with the aim of bringing them up to date and implementing the reduction in the size of the Commons.
The plans drawn up for the 2015 election and not used have been outdated.
Inevitably there will be some winners – sitting MPs who’ll see their patch becoming even safer and some losers – those who could see their time in Parliament being terminated.
In these matters MPs tend to look first at their own individual situation rather than what’s best for their party or even the country.
A danger for Mrs.May is that it could create a group of disgruntled Tory MPs who might feel they have nothing to lose in helping to curtail her political career.
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An even bigger danger for the government is what is proposed for Northern Ireland. The earlier proposals had it that the DUP would end up with fewer MPs than Sinn Fein – something that might change their view of their support for the minority Tory government.
Wales is particularly hard hit by the changes losing a quarter of its 40 MPs.
The reduction in the number of MPs was enacted six years ago during the coalition but the original boundary changes were not implemented. The LDs blocked the move in retaliation for the backbench Tory rebellion on the progress of the House of Lords reform Bill that would have made it into an elected chamber.
It is possible that the final plans don’t get through the Commons or that the law is changed to keep the House at it current size.