New GE2017 study suggests that CON>LAB swing was larger in marginals facing NHS charges and A&E closures
This sounds feasible. LAB did better in seat most threatened with NHS reform & A&E closures https://t.co/wKddsX78qb
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 23, 2017
How true is the assertion that the NHS cost TMay her majority?
The I report notes that:
“The new analysis, by the specialist health consultancy Incisive Health and seen by i, reveals that the average 2017 swing from Conservatives to Labour in 105 marginal seats facing local A&E changes was 3.2 per cent. In seats not facing A&E changes the swing to Labour was half at 1.6 per cent. “The General Election was billed as the Brexit election, but changes to hospitals was a big issue on the doorstep.
Public concern about the future of an A&E can cut-through the noise of an election campaign like little else.” Kieran Lucia, Account Manager, Incisive Health If the swing in the 105 seats facing local A&E changes or closures is adjusted to match areas without, the Conservatives would have won 12 more seats – enough to have given Mrs May a majority in the House of Commons.
This on the face of it is interesting but I think we need to wait for the final BES study of what happened on June 8th before drawing too many conclusions. Clearly this study in the I report has been produced for a reason and that is to make a political point.
Correlation it should be remembered does not equate to causation.