As the BREXIT negotiations start in Brussels LAB take 3% lead in new Survation poll
New Survation voting poll for GMB has LAB 3% ahead
CON 41%-1
LAB 44% +4
LD 6% =
UKIP 2% -1
Changes on Jun 5th— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 19, 2017
Why other pollsters are likely to show same trend when they start VI surveys again
Given the precariousness of TMay’s parliamentary position we could be close to another general election yet only Survation has produced any published voting intention polls since June 8th.
The firm starts from a strong point having done best of all with its closing GE17 polls and had been under no pressure to change its methodology.
Most of the other firms are going to need to adapt in some manner so their turnout patterns are closer to what happened at the election and not linked back to the experience of GE2015. The ones with turnout models that discounted segments of voters such as the young are clearly going to have to adapt.
At the same time there’s evidence to suggest that older voters did not turnout on quite the same scale as before probably in response to some of the measures that were proposed in the Tory manifesto.
We’ll get a clearer idea of the turnout pattern when the BES study on the election is published. Part of this involves cross referencing survey responses with actual voting data from the marked electoral registers to ascertain whether those who said they were certain vote actually did do.
All this means, I’d suggest, that LAB will be coming out more favourably when the other pollsters return.
It is perhaps worth noting that in two of the past 3 general elections Labour has been understated in the polls which is very different from the previous pattern. Tory understatement, as I was arguing before the election, is much less likely to happen when the party enjoys clear polling leads.
Today’s Survation poll for GMB is above and the fieldwork all took place after the London tower block disaster. It shows a 2.75% swing from CON to LAB since polling day.
The Tory weakness will no doubt be noted by the EU side of the negotiation in Brussels. This is precisely what TMay did not want to happen.