TMay’s much repeated assertion that Corbyn becomes PM if CON loses 6 seats doesn’t stand up to scrutiny
IF she lost 6 seats, AND Sinn Fein took its seats AND DUP, UUP & Sylvia Hermon backed Corbyn, he STILL cdn't become PM because @JWoodcockMP
— John Rentoul (@JohnRentoul) May 29, 2017
Starting 99 seats ahead gives the PM a big cushion
One of the practices that is followed at general election times is for comparisons to be made with what happened at the election before not taking into account defections or by-elections. So for the purposes of comparison the above table is the starting point. UKIP has one MP while the LD total excludes their Richmond Park by-election gain.
As can be seen Team TMay starts in a very strong position – 99 seats ahead of LAB and 12 seats ahead of all other parties combined and would need to lose 50 to LAB for JC’s party to be top on seats. That seems an almost impossible ask give current polling.
The 326 seats required for a majority conceals the fact that Sinn Fein do not take up their seats making an effective majority of 16.
The idea that Corbyn could become PM with 6 CON losses assumes that MPs of every other party would be ready to back him and that he could retain the support of the entire Labour parliamentary party.
Given JC’s record on Northern Ireland is it implausible to think that the DUP and other unionists would back him for number 10.
On top of that Farron has made a very specific pledge not to go into coalition after June 8th.
TMay’s statement is a classic turnout motivator which is not underpinned by the reality.