The first phone poll of the campaign has UKIP down to 4% and the Tories at 49%
Another indicator of a CON landslide
This morning, in the London Evening Standard, we have the first telephone poll of the general election campaign. The figures are very much in line with the other polls that we’ve seen in the last week.
The striking number in this latest is the UKIP share down to just 4% which I think the lowest share that the party has had in years.
Clearly the main feature of this campaign has been Labour’s inability to break out of the mid-20s and the huge move from the collapsing UKIP to CON
Ipsos Mori is the longest established political pollster in the country and has been surveying political opinions since the mid 1970s. The pollster does it differently. It, unlike just about all the others, does not weight by past vote or political ID. The figures we see have no political weighting.
That the firm is painting a similar to picture of the campaign to other pollsters is significant and supports what the other pollsters using different approaches have been reporting.
The declining LAB share has led to a greater proportion of the remaining party support base to be satisfied with Mr. Corbyn’s leadership – 53% said they were with 36% saying they weren’t.
Things can happen of course but it is very difficult to envisage a June 8th result which is not a Tory landslide.