GE 2015 single constituency polling: Remember when 5 consecutive surveys had Clegg being unseated
The numbers caused LAB to focus on the DPM when they could have been saving Balls
There’s been a fair bit of discussion about how difficult single seat polling is and I was reminded on Twitter this morning of the polling at GE2015 of Sheffield Hallam. The numbers are above. Five consecutive polls had LAB ahead.
As can be seen there was a pretty consistent picture that the then DPM,, who still arouses excitement amongst red tribalists, was in trouble and no end of activists poured into the seat when they could have served their party far better elsewhere.
I often wonder if other marginals in Yorkshire might have had different outcomes if EdM’s party hadn’t been distracted appeared to be a compulsive need “punish Clegg.” More fool them.
The reason single seat polling is so challenging is that it an be hard finding a sample that is large enough. This can’t really be done online and almost all such polls are by phone.
I don’t expect to see many single seat polls in this parliament.