First projection of new boundaries suggests that at GE2015 the CON vote share of 36.9% would have given it a majority of 40
This compares with the 12 they actually achieved
Well done to UK Polling Report’s Anthony Wells for the speed he has got his boundary projection out.
Based on ward by ward his computation of the proposals Wells projects the above changes in the reduced size parliament. As can be seen LAB are the biggest losers and in relative terms the Tories are the big winners. The LDs would lose half their GE2015 seats and out would go the only GRN MP in Brighton.
The overall number of seats is being cut from 650 to 600.
The Tories are helped massively by the fact that the constituency electorate sizes are based on what they were last December when there were about 2 million fewer names on the electoral register.