Just focusing on states where Hillary Clinton has 10%+ poll leads she’s only 7 seats short in the electoral college
How things have changed dramatically in just three weeks from the conventions
With so much going on in the Labour party battle the fight for the White House has got sidelined. Things have moved very sharply away from Trump since the conventions and the challenge he now faces is enormous.
As we all know this is about separate state battles and not the overall aggregate vote shares and the above map on the excellent Political Wire site shows the split state by state based solely on those where the latest polling averages give Clinton a lead of 10% or more.
In US politics, of course, the Republican colour is deemed to be red while the Democrats are blue. Those in beige on the map are where it is a toss-up or the Clinton lead is smaller than 10%
While it is simpler to just focus on the national polls there have been some recent extraordinary state polls. Yesterday, for instance, PPP Polls had the Trump lead in South Carolina down to just 2%. Four years ago Romney was winner there with a 10.5% margin.
Based on just adding up the electoral college votes of the Clinton 10%+ states we get to 263 – only 7 short of the 270 required.
Clinton is now a near 80% chance on Betfair.