Huge YouGov boost for Theresa May on the night before nominations close
The first poll of members has big CON member backing for the Home Secretary
First YouGov CON members poll has Theresa May with big lead over Johnson pic.twitter.com/K64gpyrVuk
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 29, 2016
YouGov CON members poll match-up between main contenders pic.twitter.com/uiAXFSKei2
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 29, 2016
At the 2001 and 2005 CON leadership elections YouGov member polls got the final outcome almost dead on
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 29, 2016
Let us lust remind ourselves how the CON leadership election works. There will be a series of secret ballot of MPs until they get down to a final two – then the choice will be made by party members in a postal ballot.
So of all the polls the ones we should pay most attention are those tonight from YouGov which has very good news for May and disappointing news for the long term front-runner, Mr. Johnson.
Of course it might be that these will not be the final two and in the past the Tory election process has thrown up surprises. In 2001 the big favourite, Michael Portillo, did not make the final cut and the Tories ended up with IDS who was ousted two years later.
I think that Johnson suffers from not having been a cabinet minister and in this election the party is choosing the next PM.