UPDATED With Cameron’s EU talks reaching crucial stage REMAIN’s Ipsos MORI lead drops 7%
CORRECTION #EURef polling chart. Earlier Tweet on Ipsos-MORI not based on actual question. This one is pic.twitter.com/5CpxRZhGhU
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 29, 2016
@IpsosMORI chart showing last 3 #EURef polls. So REMAIN lead lower than December but larger than Oct 2015 pic.twitter.com/c3CfChXsbI
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 29, 2016
The gap down but still larger than last October
Given the vast bulk of EURef polling has been from online surveys it’s great to see that Ipsos-MORI appears to now being doing a question for its monthly political monitor which, of course, is carried out by phone.
As can be seen in the table and has been discussed endlessly the phone pollsters have been recording very different pictures of public opinion on the issue compared with internet surveys which can be carried out at a fraction of the cost.
The pollster asked two EURef question – one its long-term tracker the other with the actual referendum question. Both showed decreases and to the latter the margin is now 19% to REMAIN.
Even so Ipsos still has a double digit REMAIN lead but it is nothing like the gap of previous months. In the summer it was at 27%.
My guess is that Cameron won’t be too upset by this development which could in fact help them. I was told by a senior diplomat from an EU country during the week that the tighter the referendum looks from a polling perspective the stronger the PM’s negotiating position.
All UK phone pollsters now call mobile numbers as well as landlines in their political surveys.