If as is likely the Tories can’t win in Oldham then the best outcome for the blues is a LAB hold
The last things CON want are UKIP gaining traction or Corbyn being ousted
A week today I’ll be at a wedding of a friend who’s been associated and helped PB for years so probably won’t be that much focused on the outcome, due overnight, of the Oldham West and Royton by-election.
One thing that strikes me strongly is that it is not in the Tory interest for UKIP to win – even if that means a LAB hold.
As we see day after day Cameron & Osborne need Corbyn to stay there running the LAB party as long as possible.
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The damage that Corbyn and his sidekick McDonnell are doing is the gift to the blues that keeps on giving
Just look at the shambolic McDonnell response to Osborne Wednesday statement and what should have been the humiliation of the U-turn on tax credits. Arguably that was a huge LAB victory. Instead the coverage was about his silly antic with Chairman Mao’s little red book.
As for UKIP the craziness on the Labour side has totally overshadowed politics since September and the purples have struggled to get a look in. A victory for Farage’s party would provide a huge stepping stone to both getting Westminster credibility and media attention.
There’s also the referendum to think of and a buoyant UKIP would make Dave’s time during this difficult renegotiation period that much harder. It would give ammunition to the sizeable Eurosceptic wing of the Parliamentary party.