The first referendum poll since Cameron’s EU letter

REMAIN 38%-2
LEAVE 43% nc
DK 19% +2

For the first time in two months there’s an EU referendum poll which has OUT in the lead. It was carried out by Survation for the Aaron Banks Leave.EU organisation which is bidding to be the officially recognised referendum campaign against staying in the EU.

Fieldwork for the poll was carried out after David Cameron’s formal move earlier in the week setting out parameters for the negotiation.

The last published Survation referendum poll was for the Mail on Sunday in early September and the changes shown above are with that survey.

The findings would probably have carried more weight if the survey hadn’t been commissioned by Leave.EU but Survation assure me that this had no impact on their approach.

It will be interesting to see if the trend is shown in the next ICM weekly referendum tracker or other surveys that hopefully will come out in the coming days.

What is puzzling about the EU referendum polling is the huge gap between the surveys like this one, which were carried out online and those – ComRes and Ipsos – where the fieldwork is by phone. The latter has had big REMAIN leads all in double figures.

REVISED list of all the published #EUREF polls Sept-Nov including latest from Survation pic.twitter.com/7nIzc9Ozxy

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 13, 2015

There was also a Survation Westminster voting intention finding that has UKIP moving up.

CON 36% -2
LAB 30% -2
UKIP 15% +2
LD 7% +1
GRN 3% (-1)

Mike Smithson

Follow @MSmithsonPB

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