Ipsos MORI referendum REMAIN lead drops by an astonishing 24 points
New Ipsos-MORI phone poll finds REMAIN on 57% to LEAVE 43% on EU referendum. In June the firm had 69-31 for staying.
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 22, 2015
Ipsos MORI 14% remain EU referendum lead means once again phone polls more likely to be pro-EU than online. Latest YouGov REMAIN was 1% up
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 22, 2015
By a margin of more than 2 to 1 those sampled by @IpsosMORI say they think REMAIN will win EU referendum pic.twitter.com/FGGNuR14ZU
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 22, 2015
Looking at the the June and October Ipsos polls the former looks increasingly like an outlier but even so the current gap is substantially larger than anything we have seen in recent online polls.
There does seem to be something very odd when the two main communication polling methodologies are producing too very different pictures of opinion in the country.
It is very hard to come to a conclusion. The previous phone poll to today’s one from ipsos was buy ComRes at the end of September and that had a remain main lead of 19%.
I can’t explain it. Maybe the people who want to leave the EU are more reluctant to admit it to a live interviewer on the phone. Do we have the shy noes?