This is the real battle-ground

The big question tonight is whether LAB can make enough gains from the Tories to offset the likely losses in Scotland where, on some polls, the red team could could every seat. The good news for them is that it is not CON which is benefiting but the SNP.

This means that the loss of all 40 current LAB Scottish seats can be be offset, in terms of the most seats battle with the Tories, by making just 20 gains from the blues. This is because a LAB gains from CON boosts the former’s total by one and reduces the latter’s by the same amount thus increase the gap by two.

80 of the key LAB-CON battlegrounds are featured in the table above with their ranking and the size of swing required.

Only five and a bit hours till we get the exit poll.

Mike Smithson

For 11 years viewing politics from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble

For latest polling and political betting news follow @MSmithsonPB