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Month: April 2015

“Cameron has wanted out for a while – just wants to go out on a high” : Tim Montgomerie

“Cameron has wanted out for a while – just wants to go out on a high” : Tim Montgomerie

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Dramatic Tweet exchange with Andrew Neil Spoke to major Tory donor tonight. "Tory campaign useless. Cameron's heart not in it. Not looking good". — Andrew Neil (@afneil) April 21, 2015 @afneil DC has wanted out for a while. He has just wanted to go out on some sort of high and hasn't been able to find that high. — Tim Montgomerie Ù† (@montie) April 21, 2015 This is not the sort of message that the Tories want to come out…

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Marf’s Tuesday afternoon’s take and LAB move from a 2% deficit to a 2% lead with TNS

Marf’s Tuesday afternoon’s take and LAB move from a 2% deficit to a 2% lead with TNS

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LAB retakes the lead with TNS LAB 34% (+2), CON 32% (-2), LD 8% (-1), UKIP 15% (+1), GREEN 5% (0), OTHER 6% (+1 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 21, 2015 And UKIP appear to be edging back ICM, TNS, Populus, Opinium, Survation, and Ipsos-MORI all have UKIP with increased shares. The others have no change. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 21, 2015

A record-breaking 469,047 registered online to vote yesterday before the midnight deadline

A record-breaking 469,047 registered online to vote yesterday before the midnight deadline

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Via @peterjukes Chart showing on rush to beat the voter registration deadline.But how many unregistered? pic.twitter.com/9uHr3kBbIf — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 21, 2015 On the face of it this is good news for LAB On top of the online registrations a further 15,965 people registering by post. The total who signed themselves up was the equivalent of well over 750 people for each parliamentary constituency or roughly one percent of the electorate. According to Wired of those who registered yesterday…

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These ICM sub-samples are very small but the detail of this breakdown is fascinating

These ICM sub-samples are very small but the detail of this breakdown is fascinating

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ICM Unlimited Inevitably when you have a 1,000 sample poll and then adjust for turnout after taking out the don’t knows the numbers you are left with can get very small. But I love the way ICM, in its general election datasets, is now breaking down constituencies by specific types. The group where there’s the biggest variation across the different seat types are those saying they’ll vote Lib Dem. Notice how in the final column, the CON-LAB marginals, we get…

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The main message from the Tories for the next fortnight

The main message from the Tories for the next fortnight

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Via @GoodwinMJ This looks like the closing theme of the Tory campaign. It could work pic.twitter.com/uLd6aYyg0U — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 20, 2015 Via @SamCoatesTimes: YouGov / Scotland 16-20 AprilSNP 49Lab 25Con 17LD 5Other 4No change — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 20, 2015 I think it's worth reminding ourselves that there are only 59 seats in Scotland and GE15 will be decided in English LAB-CON marginals — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 20, 2015

Marf’s summation as the big day gets closer

Marf’s summation as the big day gets closer

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If you would like to purchase one of Marf’s prints or originals, please contact her here. The worst pun of the day from the William Hill press officePunters Back Mili To Be Ed Boy — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 20, 2015 ComRes/ITV: Who/which parties/leaders voters would like/not like involved in government. Bad for SNP/UKIP better LDs pic.twitter.com/x67E7i2XaS — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 20, 2015

The Monday afternoon rolling polling blog

The Monday afternoon rolling polling blog

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Mondays are always a big day polling day. First off was Populus with a slight up-tick for LAB. This afternoon we’ll have ICM, which last week had a 6% CON lead, and Ashcroft. This evening there will be the daily YouGov. UPDATE Ashcroft national 4% CON lead + 2 new Scots polls @LordAshcroft national poll has CON 4% ahead pic.twitter.com/lVhz610Fob — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 20, 2015 Ashcroft Edinburgh S SNP ahead but close pic.twitter.com/P0qq9jjggY — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April…

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