Latest ComRes / ITV News Battleground poll has studied the fifty most marginal CON-held seats where LAB were second at the last election, and results show that LAB leads CON by three points across these seats. LAB currently stand at 40% in these key battleground seats, with CON on 37%.

This represents a swing of 3.5 points from the CON to LAB, and will boost Ed Miliband and his “happy warriors” on the LAB campaign team as they enter the final days of canvassing the electorate. If these results were replicated on election day and if there were a uniform swing across all these constituencies, it would see LAB win 43 of them.

This would be enough, just, for LAB to come out as top party even if they lost every single Scottish seat. That is assuming that LAB and CON perform equally in terms of net seats against UKIP/LDs

The seats covered were: North Warwickshire, Thurrock, Hendon, Cardiff North, Sherwood, Stockton South, Broxtowe, Lancaster and Fleetwood, Amber Valley, Waveney, Wolverhampton South West, Morecambe and Lunesdale, Carlisle, Stroud, Weaver Vale, Lincoln, Plymouth, Sutton and Devonport, Dewsbury, Warrington South, Bedford, Brighton Kemptown, Pudsey, Brentford and Isleworth, Hove, Enfield North, Hastings and Rye, Ipswich, Halesowen and Rowley Regis, Nuneaton, Gloucester, Northampton North, Bury North, Kingswood, Erewash, Blackpool North and Cleveleys, City of Chester, Croydon Central, Worcester, Keighley, Wirral West, Cannock Chase, Harrow East, Loughborough, Warwick and Leamington, South Swindon, Ealing Central and Acton, Pendle, Stevenage, Elmet and Rothwell, Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire

Mike Smithson

For 11 years viewing politics from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble

For latest polling and political betting news follow @MSmithsonPB