Listed above are all the constituencies in England and Wales which would change hands on swings between 2% and 6% from CON to LAB.

In most of them Lord Ashcroft has at some point in the past year conducted constituency specific polls. The least marginal, Crewe and Nantwich was polled earlier in the month.

My working assumption is that almost all of Labour’s Scottish seats are going to go and my focus is on the CON-LAB battlegrounds in England and Wales.

Remember that in terms of plurality each LAB gain from the list offsets Two losses to the SNP in Scotland. This is because each of the above seats going sees the LAB total going up by one and the CON total declining by one. So the gap moves by two.

Mike Smithson

For 11 years viewing politics from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble

For latest polling and political betting news follow @MSmithsonPB