This puts ICM’s 6% CON lead into context

I was driving in thick traffic round the M25 and am only just now catching up with this extraordinary afternoon of polling. Lord Ashcroft, who polls weekly by phone and has a weighting structure not too different from ICM. has a very different picture.

Both Ashcroft and ICM had 3% leads in their last surveys yet one moved in one direction and the other moved in another

To his great credit ICM boss Martin Boon, has been very open about his survey. Let’s see if other polls in the next few days, particularly the Ipsos phone poll, show similar movements.

Ashcroft fits into the pattern that we’ve been seeing – moving to level-pegging reinforcing the tightness of the race.

Mike Smithson

For 11 years viewing politics from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble

For latest polling and political betting news follow @MSmithsonPB