Like the GE10 LDs UKIP will be squeezed in the big party fights

Apart from the problems facing Nick Clegg and the latest on the CON-LD battles a striking feature of the latest wave of Ashcroft seat polling was the decline of UKIP.

These are all constituency fights where, with perhaps one possible exception, UKIP was not a contender and what happens – in every single case the purples see a sharpish reduction in their share.

The biggest slippage of all, Camborne+Redruth, had Farage’s party slipping from 26% in last June shortly after the Euros to 14% in this latest poll. At one stage UKIP had been seen as a serious contender there.

My guess is that when we see the latest from CON-LAB battlegrounds there’ll be a similar trend.

UKIP’s vote will be squeezed where it is not in contention and at least two of the traditional three big parties are slugging it out. Farage’s party will struggle where it’s not relevant to the main battle at hand.

Where there isn’t a fierce constituency fight going on, the non-marginals in the red and blue heartlands, then UKIP might fare better. That is precisely what happened to the LDs in 2010. The Cleggasm did happen – but not in seats where it was going to affect the result.

Mike Smithson

For 11 years viewing politics from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble

For latest polling and political betting news follow @MSmithsonPB