At almost exactly this point before GE2010 YouGov had CON ahead with teachers

In December 2013 that had become a 41% LAB lead

It was said in July that this was why Lynton was behind the Gove sacking

During one of the breaks at the big LSE GE forecasting conference on Friday I was asked for suggestions of ideas for interesting polling that could tell us more than what we see in standard surveys or constituency polling. After pondering this over the weekend I think that a repetition of the surveys above might give us a useful insight.

It was said at the time of the last reshuffle in the summer that Michael Gove was sacked as Education Secretary because Lynton Crosby had picked up the same voting switch amongst teachers of whom there are about 900 in each has constituency. Add on their close families and you’ve got a significant voting block.

The big question now is whether taking Gove out of the picture has had the desired effect or whether there is an ongoing hostility to the Tories which is still causing a disproportionate amount of switching.

New polling could be very enlightening.

Mike Smithson

For 11 years viewing politics from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble

For latest polling and political betting news follow @MSmithsonPB