The Intellectually stimulating campaign begins LAB protesters @ CON Launch CON ones @ LAB launch Via @PoliticalPics pic.twitter.com/ktUELzqgsM

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 28, 2015

We should get the first full post debate polls tonight

My guess is that the campaigning won’t start in earnest until after Easter and it will only be after then that most people will start to take notice. The final fortnight is, as you’d expect the most intensive.

One thing we know is that this will be the most polled election ever in the UK. There’ll be a pile of new numbers coming out every day.

On top of the national polls Lord Ashcroft has indicated that a lot of seat specific surveys are in the pipeline. My guess is that he’ll try to focus on those seats that look the most marginal from his polling – not from what happened in 2010.

Scotland clearly is is going to be looked at closely but we shouldn’t overstate its importance in terms of which party overall will have most seats. Even if LAB was to lose every single Scottish MP this would increase its target of gains from CON in England & Wales to just 21 seats.

The big battles are in England in many of the seats that the Tories took off Labour in 2010.

Mike Smithson

For 11 years viewing politics from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble

For latest polling and political betting news follow @MSmithsonPB