Rhyl South West on Denbighshire (Lab defence)
Result of council at last election (2012): Labour 18, Independents 12, Conservatives 9, Plaid Cymru 7, Liberal Democrat 1 (No Overall Control, Labour short by 6)
Result of ward at last election (2012): E denotes elected
Labour: Pat Jones 797 E, Margaret McCarroll 647 E (70%)
Independents: David Thomas 184, Glyn Williams 141 (16%)
Conservatives: Harry Bennett 116, Billy Dawson 96 (10%)
Liberal Democrats: David Dear 71 (2%)
Candidates duly nominated: David Dear (Lib Dem), Diana Hammam (Ind), Melanie Jones (Con), Pete Prendergast (Lab), David Wilmot (Plaid)

I have often commented on the fact that in some parts of Wales it is almost impossible for a party to get an overall majority and there is one common factor in those councils, Independents, and in Denbighshire Independents rule the roost in more ways than one. When the council was created in 1995 following the merger of Rhuddlan and Glyndwr councils, the Independents made their presence felt polling 42% of the vote (to Labour’s 34%) and winning 20 councillors (just one ahead of Labour) thus ensuring that like their previous numbers, Denbighshire would be NOC. In 1999, the Independents were still on top (polling 35% of the vote and winning 18 councillors) but there was a new Independent group on the block calling themselves the Democratic Alliance of Wales who polled a very respectable 12% and won 5 councillors, probably on the back of Gwynne Clague standing in the Assembly elections on the same day in the Vale of Clwyd constituency (where he polled 9% of the vote)

By 2004 however, the Democratic Alliance had fallen away and the Independents were now back to their 1995 levels of support and this time (thanks in part to the drop in support for Labour) they were now clearly the largest grouping on the council with the Conservatives and Plaid Cymru both chomping at the bit at becoming the second largest grouping on the council. At the next elections in 2008, the Conservatives clearly scented blood and for the first time since the council’s formation the Conservatives won the election polling 33% (+18% on the last elections) and winning 18 councillors (+11 on the last elections) and thus became the largest party on the council however this wasn’t to last as in 2012 Labour came roaring back as they polled 33% (+13% on the 2008 elections) and made a net gain of 10 seats to become the new largest grouping but still short of an overall majority.

YouGov/Sun poll tonight – Tories lead by two: CON 35%, LAB 33%, LD 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 6%

— Sun Politics (@SunPolitics) March 19, 2015

New @Survation / Daily Record poll Westminster voting intention: SNP 47%; LAB 26%; CON 16%; LD 4%; OTHER 7% #GE2015

— David Clegg (@davieclegg) March 19, 2015