Tories move to a 64% chance of winning most seats on Betfair exchange pic.twitter.com/cvOGXUnbdz

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 10, 2015

All published polls since start of month pic.twitter.com/GAhfqPNumI

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 10, 2015

Only fly in the ointment for the blues – Populus

Those who were concluding that Dave and the blue team would not be damaged by the debates issue now have an answer. With both Ashcroft and latest showing 4% leads the strong Tory start to March continues.

This will surely calm nerves within the blue camp about the debates row and support their confidence.

But Populus remains showing a red lead albeit a small one. Hopefully in the coming week we will start to see the other firms reporting which might add to the overall picture.

Back in 2010 the early March polling proved to be a good pointer to the national CON vote lead on day.

The betting, as the Betfair chart above shows, has the Tories moving to a 64% shot on Betfair exchange. The other markets will no doubt follow suit.

Mike Smithson

For 11 years viewing politics from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble

For latest polling and political betting news follow @MSmithsonPB