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Month: February 2015

After this week’s “pollercoaster” now YOU predict the election in PB’s Prize Competition

After this week’s “pollercoaster” now YOU predict the election in PB’s Prize Competition

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Politicalbetting's Marf pic.twitter.com/D3MPN5IxJe — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 18, 2015 Win a Marf cartoon & a betting prize GE15 Competition Phase 1 Using the bespoke NoJam template you will need to enter seat totals for the main parties. The winner will be the person with the smallest overall error. The plan is to run several competitions as we get closer. I am delighted to announce that Sporting Index, which is sponsoring PB’s General Election coverage, has agreed to provide a…

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The mystery of the second ICM poll that was carried out last weekend

The mystery of the second ICM poll that was carried out last weekend

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Does it show similar figures to the published poll? With much of the current GE15 narrative being linked to ICM’s 4% lead poll from Monday it is interesting to note that this was not the only survey being carried out by the firm at the weekend. On Sunday, as I have reported, I was polled by ICM. The call was initiated from the firm’s big political calling centre in the Bromham Road in Bedford which is, incidentally, only about a…

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GE2015 comes down to Brand “Labour” versus Brand “Cameron”. Which will prevail?

GE2015 comes down to Brand “Labour” versus Brand “Cameron”. Which will prevail?

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Meanwhile the negatives build up against the purples it has been said often in recent months that what the country really wants is a Labour government led by David Cameron. This perception is reinforced by the latest positive/negative in this week’s Ashcroft Nationaal Pooll. The question was quite simple “On scale of -100 to +100 how positive/negative do you feel about..? “ The chart is based on the net figures for all those listed with a breakdown for “swing” voter…

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The sure guide to knowing if you live in a marginal – how much is coming through your letterbox

The sure guide to knowing if you live in a marginal – how much is coming through your letterbox

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One of 4 GE15 leaflets from the past 5 days – and there are 11 weeks to go. Oh the joy of living in a marginal! pic.twitter.com/ShfdYJgLau — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 17, 2015 GE2010 Ipsos-MORI. Just 27% of those living in marginals realised that their seat was key battleground pic.twitter.com/YWqn0OUPiJ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 17, 2015 The above polling by Ipsos at GE10 says a lot. By the final week just over a quarter of those sampled in…

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After six weeks of CON leads or them level-pegging today Lord Ashcroft poll has LAB 1% ahead

After six weeks of CON leads or them level-pegging today Lord Ashcroft poll has LAB 1% ahead

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Ashcroft National Poll, 13-15 Feb: CON 30%, LAB 31%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 16%, GRN 8%. Full details on @ConHome, 4pm. — Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft) February 16, 2015 Now LAB go into lead for 1st time this year in this week's @LordAshcroft national phone poll pic.twitter.com/5i5Oh6Q6or — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 16, 2015 @LordAshroft national poll. Some good +ve numbers for LAB here an bad ones for Farage/UKIP pic.twitter.com/kpfuLCcXhB — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 16, 2015 So what do we make…

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UPDATED: Marf on the Copenhagen shootings and the day’s 1st 2 polls – ICM CON 4% ahead

UPDATED: Marf on the Copenhagen shootings and the day’s 1st 2 polls – ICM CON 4% ahead

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Marf on the Copenhagen shootings pic.twitter.com/gUxVyMOQAU — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 16, 2015 CON jump 6% in most sensational poll of 2015 Breakdown of ICM Guardian poll pic.twitter.com/sVyGcVPT0y — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 16, 2015 Latest Populus VI: Lab 33 (-1), Con 31 (-), LD 10 (+1), UKIP 15 (+1), Others 11 (-1). Tables here: http://t.co/7TPAFeVZw3 — Populus (@PopulusPolls) February 16, 2015 NHS remains most important issue according to ICM/Guardian poll. Just 4% said Europe. . pic.twitter.com/zSpz8Mvhkx — Mike Smithson…

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Big question in blue-yellow battles is how much you can trust the Ashcroft 2 stage seat specific questioning

Big question in blue-yellow battles is how much you can trust the Ashcroft 2 stage seat specific questioning

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Illuminating observations from the inventor – UKPR’s Anthony Wells There’s a big debate going on over the Lord Ashcroft style two stage questioning in his single constituency polls of which there have been more than 150. It will be recalled that after asking the standard voting question he puts a second one suggesting that those sampled focus on their own seat and the candidates who might stand. The numbers that are highlighted are the responses to the latter not the…

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