The biggest source of Farage’s support in Thanet South: non voters at the last election
There’s little doubt that one of the great successes that UKIP has had has been in engaging within the political process those who have never, or not recently, used their vote.
The above breakdown is from the latest Survation South Thanet poll illustrates this well. Because of the way the firm presents its data we are able to quantify the non-voting element.
A big question with non-2010 voting support is whether their backing can be relied on as much as those who do generally turnout for elections.
My reading of the data is that UKIP are ahead but not be the 11% margin that the headline figures pointed to.
Mike Smithson
For 11 years viewing politics from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble
For latest polling and political betting news follow @MSmithsonPB